A familiar pattern played out in Game 3 of the Eastern Conference Finals between the Montreal Canadiens and Carolina Hurricanes.
Just like in Game 2, the Hurricanes owned the puck, created more scoring chances and shots on target, but they couldn’t get the goal to put the Canadiens away. Eventually, the game went to overtime, with Carolina coming out on top thanks to a miscue from Montreal.
That presents us with a couple of ways of looking at this series.
Has Carolina’s dominance become too much for Montreal to overcome? Or are the Habs still dangerous because the Canes are struggling to put them away?
The oddsmakers lean towards the former, as Carolina is -150 to win Game 4 and a prohibitive -520 favorite to win the series.
Canadiens vs. Hurricanes Game 4 odds, prediction
Montreal has a lot to work on ahead of Game 4, but it does feel somewhat fixable. The Canadiens were turning the puck over like it was going out of style on Monday night, and the culprits were their best players.
Lane Hutson had a miserable giveaway in overtime that led to the game-winner. Juraj Slafkovsky can’t keep the puck on his stick. And Noah Dobson seems to make a mistake every time he’s on the ice.
There are other players to put under the microscope, but the point is that some of Montreal’s most important contributors are having a negative impact.
The biggest red flag for Carolina remains the goaltending. After playing lights out in the first two rounds, Frederik Andersen has begun to show some serious cracks against the Habs.
His teammates are making his life easy by limiting Montreal’s volume, but if the Canadiens can find even a slight uptick in that department, it could be trouble for the Canes. Carolina is still struggling to score, so one miscue from Andersen could be enough to turn the tide of any game.
Betting on the NHL?
It feels like smashing your head against the wall, going against Carolina in the playoffs, but it’s hard to find value on a team that is winning by the skin of its teeth.
The Canes are now 10-1 in the playoffs, but half of their wins have come in overtime, and they are 6-0 in contests decided by one goal. That’s not the formula you want when you’re being asked to lay -150 on the road, especially when Carolina closed around -135 in Game 3.
Montreal has value at +125. It’s just not going to be fun bet to sweat.
The Play: Canadiens moneyline (+125, FanDuel)
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Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.
