Alexander Zverev is in the form of his life and looking for his second consecutive Grand Slam title, but he’s still a decided underdog against Jannik Sinner in the Men’s Final at Wimbledon on Sunday morning.
Such is the state of men’s tennis at the moment, where Sinner and the currently injured Carlos Alcaraz are considered to be in a class of their own, even when going up against the World No. 3 and arguably the hottest player on the planet.
While it may seem unjust to see Zverev at +350 odds for this match, the more you dig into this matchup, the more it makes sense.
The argument for the underdog is simple: There may not be a better time to back Zverev than right now, especially as an underdog.
The German had spent years at the top of the “best active player never to win a Grand Slam title” list, but that burden was lifted when he won the French Open last month. Sinner was sent tumbling out of that tournament in Round 2 after the Italian was wobbled by the Paris heat.
It’s expected to be near 80 degrees at Wimbledon on Sunday.
Everything else outside of Zverev’s current form and the question marks about Sinner’s ability to handle the conditions points toward the Italian.
Not only is he the defending champion at Wimbledon, but he’s also got a massive edge in the head-to-head against Zverev.
After losing four of his first five meetings against Zverev, Sinner has won nine in a row, and he’s won the last 14 sets these two have played.
Sinner and Zverev have met four times in 2026, and the former has won five of the eight sets by a score of 6-3, 6-2, or 6-1. It’s been one-way traffic.
It does need to be noted that Sinner’s path to the final has been soft. The Italian made quick work of Novak Djokovic in the semifinals, and that’s no small feat even with the Serb closing in on his 40th birthday, but that was Sinner’s only battle with a seeded player at the All England Club.
Zverev was a whopping favorite against wildcard entry Arthur Fery in the semifinals, but he took out Taylor Fritz and Jiri Lehecka in the previous two rounds.
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While those victories should buoy Zverev’s confidence in this match, it’s a whole different ballgame against Sinner.
I have a feeling that Zverev will be a trendy underdog Sunday morning, so you may be able to be patient and wait until the very last minute to lock in a bet on Sinner.
My favorite angle is backing the World No. 1 to win in straight sets (+140, DraftKings), but there’s also a live-betting scenario to look out for in this tilt: Zverev to choke away a lead.
Zverev did get the monkey off his back with his win at Roland Garros, but he’s no stranger to squandering big leads in the biggest moments of his career. He was up 2-0 on Dominic Thiem in the 2020 US Open Final, 2-1 against Carlos Alcaraz at the 2024 French Open Final, and blew a 2-0 lead to Daniil Medvedev in the semifinals at the 2024 Australian Open. Those are just the most notable of his collapses. There are plenty of others to choose from.
If Zverev is able to get ahead in this matchup, I’d be keeping a keen eye on the price of Sinner to come back, even if we see the newly minted French Open champion take a commanding 2-0 lead.
The Play: Sinner -2.5 sets (+140, DraftKings)
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Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.
