The World Cup has been full of drama, surprises, and moments of magic, but ultimately, it has been chalky.
The four pre-tournament favorites, France, Spain, England, and Argentina, are the last countries remaining in the 48-team field.
France will take on Spain in the first semifinal on Tuesday afternoon in Dallas, then England and Argentina will renew their long-standing international rivalry in Atlanta on Wednesday.
Before the tournament began just over a month ago, it was Spain that topped the odds at most sportsbooks. As we head into the penultimate round of the World Cup, another team has clearly separated itself from the pack.
France, which has been to the finals in each of the last World Cups with a win in 2018, is the consensus favorite to lift the trophy at +150. Les Bleus are the only team in the tournament that has won all six matches this summer without needing extra time.
Didier Deschamps’ side has only conceded two goals in the tournament, and none since the knockout rounds started.
If you bet France before the tournament, you’re sitting pretty right now. But the value on Les Bleus is long gone. As is the value on Kylian Mbappe to win the Golden Boot (most goals) and/or Golden Ball (tournament MVP).
Updated World Cup odds
| Team | Odds |
|---|---|
| France | +150 |
| Spain | +320 |
| England | +340 |
| Argentina | +360 |
Mbappe is odds-on at -120 to win the Golden Boot, and he’s +150 to win the Golden Ball.
So if not France, which of the four remaining teams has the most value heading into the semifinals? And what about the awards markets? Mbappe and Lionel Messi are tied with eight goals apiece in the Golden Boot hunt, but there’s another superstar at a much better price worth a hard look.
Best value to win the World Cup
Spain (+340, Caesars)
We haven’t seen the best of Spain yet. That may sound ludicrous since La Furia Roja are in the semifinals having conceded just one goal throughout the entire tournament. Still, if you’ve watched Luis de la Fuente’s team this summer, you’d be right thinking that this team has another gear it can hit, especially offensively.
Spain’s best player, Lamine Yamal, has one goal and no assists in the tournament, and only two players, Mikel Oyarzabal (four) and Mikel Merino (two), have scored more than once.
If La Roja can get just a little bit more from their stars, we know the defense will do its part.
And don’t forget, Spain did beat France and England en route to the title at the European Championships two summers ago.
Best value to win the Golden Boot
Harry Kane (13/1, Fanatics Sportsbook)
He’s got some ground to make up, but Harry Kane is still very much alive in the Golden Boot race.
England’s captain has six goals at the World Cup, meaning he’s two back of Mbappe and Messi. He’s also trailing Mbappe by two assists, and Messi by one (assists are the tie-breaker to win the award).
But Kane now will take on an Argentinian defense that has looked vulnerable against the likes of Cape Verde, Egypt, and Switzerland in the knockout rounds, while Mbappe will need to deal with Spain.
Kane has proven to be captain clutch for England throughout his whole career, and he should also benefit from Jude Bellingham’s offensive explosion for the Three Lions.
Instead of focusing their attention on Kane in the defensive third, Argentina (and whoever England’s opponent is in the finals or third-place match) will now need to account for Bellingham’s presence.
That should open up the doors for Kane to make some noise in the business end of the tournament.
Why Trust New York Post Betting
Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.
