Aaron Rodgers looked like he belonged on the Wheaties box again last week.
The Steelers had entered Acrisure Stadium against Cincinnati ranking dead last in EPA per play before the future Hall of Famer aired 292 passing yards and three touchdowns in their 30-27 victory.
The rushing attack was also to thank as the Steelers averaged six yards per carry and finished with 138 rushing yards, while Jaylen Warren exploded for 127 yards on just 17 attempts.
His counterpart Rico Dowdle remains day-to-day heading into Thursday’s AFC North date with the Browns, and it’s likely the Steelers will lean on the ground game again.
That’s mostly because they shouldn’t fix what isn’t broken, but also because expecting a 42-year-old Rodgers to carry the offense on three days’ rest is… optimistic.
Steelers vs. Browns prediction, best bet
The Steelers’ 30-point outburst also deserves some context following two poor weeks: As of the start of 2025, Pittsburgh has averaged 31.7 points per game against Cincinnati compared to just 20.9 against everyone else. In fact, they averaged just 13 against Cleveland last season.
Rodgers failed to complete a deep ball on nine attempts through the season’s first two games. All of a sudden, he wired two touchdowns of 20-plus air yards in the first quarter Sunday.
Cleveland is equipped to cause disruption from the interior via defensive tackle Mason Graham’s four sacks in three games. This can stunt Rodgers from comfortably stepping into deep throws and force him toward checkdowns and shorter possessions.
It’s not often you can say the Browns have back-to-back wins.
First-year defensive coordinator Mike Rutenberg has helped right the ship and held a burgeoning Carolina offense to just 4.9 yards per play and recorded three sacks on Sunday.
With two offenses that remain tricky to trust, this game shares the lowest point total on the Week 4 slate with Vikings vs. Dolphins at 38.5.
Bear in mind that the Browns were still outgained 360-259 at home by Carolina and needed a questionable roughing-the-passer penalty to erase a late Deshaun Watson interception before escaping with a three-point win.
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Pittsburgh’s defense slipped against Joe Burrow as he neutralized its pass rush with his trusty rapport with Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins. Something tells me that kind of consistent execution won’t be replicated by Watson and Jerry Jeudy.
That’s especially because before last week, the Steelers ranked second in the NFL in defensive EPA per play and first in defensive success rate.
When the ball crosses the opponent’s 20-yard line, expect fourth downs. The Browns (37.5 percent) and Steelers (33.3 percent) both rank inside the bottom five teams overall in red-zone touchdown rate.
Consider these outstanding trends: Since 2005, Thursday night games closing below 40 points are 32-19-2 to the Under, according to Action Network’s betting database.
More importantly, Watson is 8-1 to the Under at home over the past five seasons, while Rodgers has gone Under in all five of his career meetings with Cleveland, missing the total by an average of 6.1 points per game.
Neither team is built to run away with games, so expect another dull Thursday night rock fight.
THE PLAY: Under 38.5 (51.9 percent, Kalshi)
Why Trust New York Post Betting
Sean Treppedi handicaps the NFL, NHL, MLB and college football for the New York Post. He primarily focuses on picks that reflect market value while tracking trends to mitigate risk.
