It will be quite the scene in Buffalo on Sunday.
Playing their first postseason game in 15 years, the Buffalo Sabres will have a raucous crowd behind them as they take on the Boston Bruins in Game 1 of Round 1.
Buffalo is a -178 favorite to win the series, and is -162 to grab the win and send their long-suffering fans home happy on Sunday afternoon.
There’s no doubt that the Sabres will be the team with the biggest bandwagon during the Stanley Cup Playoffs, but that could lead to them being overvalued this spring.
Is that the case for Game 1?
Sabres vs. Bruins Game 1 odds, prediction
Neither one of these teams was expected to be here. The Sabres were projected to finish near the bottom of the Atlantic Division this season, and they were in last place in the Eastern Conference on Dec. 9. The Bruins, meanwhile, were supposed to be in the middle of a reset under rookie head coach Marco Sturm.
But this season has been full of surprises, and that means that one of these preseason long shots will find themselves in the second round in a fortnight.
Everything points to the Sabres being the more likely of the two to get through this series, but there’s a chance that the market is overrating Buffalo and, at the same time, underrating what Boston brings to the table.
Boston’s success this season has been called a fluke thanks to a high shooting percentage and poor underlying metrics, but that stands the risk of brushing aside a team that hit the 100-point plateau.
And it also may overlook what could make the Bruins a real chore to deal with in a playoff atmosphere.
The most important player in any series is the goaltender, and Boston could have a massive edge in that department with Jeremy Swayman. The Alaska native put up Vezina-worthy numbers again this season, and his playoff pedigree sparkles. He’s been a difference-maker for the Bruins in the spring before, and should provide a foundation for Boston to hang around in this contest.
Betting on the NHL?
The Sabres, meanwhile, have an unsettled situation in goal. Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen had a solid campaign for Buffalo, but this will be his first taste of playoff action, as it will be for a good portion of Lindy Ruff’s lineup.
The goaltending edge, at least on paper, goes to Boston. The B’s have more experience. And Boston is also built to play a punishing, physical style of hockey that could slow down the Sabres.
And it’s also important to remember that, for all of their offensive firepower, the Sabres aren’t really ice-tilters. They were bang-average in shot attempts, expected goals created, and high-danger scoring chances generated at 5-on-5, so they’re not likely to just pummel rubber at Swayman all night.
It’s hard not to get wrapped up in what the Sabres have done, but the value here, as it often is in betting, is on fading the feel-good story.
The Play: Bruins to win Game 1 (+132, FanDuel)
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Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.
