How Dodgers can (effectively) lock up NL West in rivalry stretch against Padres

Last summer, the Dodgers nearly lost the NL West during a horrid 40-day stretch.

Now, with the Padres on the schedule in two of their next three series, they can effectively lock up another division crown soon.

Such is the position the Dodgers have put themselves in entering Friday night’s series opener at Petco Park against the Padres, which marks the first of seven games in the next 10 days between the rivals (the Padres visit Dodger Stadium for a four-game series beginning next Thursday).

As it stands, the Dodgers lead the second-place Padres by nine games in the division. They have a better than 99% chance of finishing in first place, according to Fangraphs’ computer models. And while half the schedule is still left to play, they have eliminated almost all drama from what had been a close division battle in the season’s opening months.

All that could really trip them up at this point? Another extended slump like they went through this time last year, when an identical nine-game division lead evaporated between July 4 and Aug. 13, putting the Dodgers briefly in second place before they stabilized down the stretch and went on to win a second consecutive World Series.

But if a similar collapse doesn’t happen now, when the Padres will have repeated chances to cut directly into the Dodgers’ comfortable NL West lead, well … you can probably start printing the division title T-shirts and planning for home-field advantage in October.

This year’s Dodgers, after all, don’t seem as susceptible as last year’s squad.

And these Padres, even coming off a sweep of the Braves this week, don’t look quite as dangerous, either.

Start with the Dodgers: Last year, their 12-21 free fall during July and early August had mostly to do with an overworked-and-unreliable bullpen and an offense that (during that rut) was arguably the worst in the majors.

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Now, however, workload is not a concern for their relievers, with their ‘pen having combined for the fewest innings in the sport. And while the unit has had some troublesome moments in recent weeks, it is also starting to get healthy (Blake Treinen’s recent elbow inflammation notwithstanding), with Brock Stewart back, Evan Phillips on a rehab assignment and closer Edwin Díaz on track to return sometime shortly after the All-Star break.

The offense, on the other hand, has already overcome its own wave of injuries, most recently playing without Will Smith (who continues to battle a neck problem), Teoscar Hernández (who is completing a minor-league rehab assignment after a monthlong hamstring injury) and Kyle Tucker (who is expected back in the lineup for Friday’s series opener after battling back spasms in Minnesota this week). 

Those absences haven’t stopped the group from leading MLB in batting average and OPS while ranking second in runs scored.

Shohei Ohtani is having another MVP season. Freddie Freeman, Max Muncy and Andy Pages all look bound for All-Star selections. Even Mookie Betts has finally begun to heat up after struggling to produce following his own IL stint with a strained oblique earlier this year.

If anything, the Dodgers are expecting even more consistency from their offense.

Then there’s the rotation, which has been among the best in baseball (ranking second in ERA and innings pitched) even with Blake Snell and Tyler Glasnow sidelined with more injury problems.

In other words, the Dodgers have already had plenty go wrong –– and still have more wins than any team in the league.

The Padres, meanwhile, have seen the close-game luck that buoyed them early this season begin to predictably die out.

On May 18, San Diego was 29-18 and holding sole possession of first place in the NL West after beating the Dodgers in their first matchup of the season. But they also had just a plus-eight run differential, a league-worst team batting average and plenty of reasons to believe a regression to the mean was coming.

And, boy, has it ever.

Since then, the Padres are 13-19, spiraling with what remains a league-worst offense (ranking last in batting average, OPS and runs scored) and a patchwork starting rotation. Their Mason Miller-anchored bullpen remains elite. But with Manny Machado, Fernando Tatis Jr. and Jackson Merrill all having down years, there have been few leads to protect lately.

This isn’t to count the Padres out completely yet.

They have made surprising second-half surges to challenge the Dodgers before. They are almost certain to receive some shake-up at the trade deadline from always-aggressive GM AJ Preller. And even this week, they welcome the Dodgers riding their first extended winning streak since mid-May, after taking three straight wins over the NL East-leading Braves. 

This coming stretch of rivalry games could open the door for the Padres to get back in the NL West race and narrow their deficit to the Dodgers again. 

On the other hand, though, it also offers the Dodgers what amounts to a midseason kill shot, giving them the opportunity to essentially put the division out of reach before the All-Star break.