Xavier Becerra has widened his lead over Steve Hilton to 22 points, according to a new statewide survey.
The Democrat leads the Republican 60% to 38% among likely voters if the Nov. 3 gubernatorial election were held today, according to the Public Policy Institute of California poll conducted Sept. 4–10.
The latest numbers mark a notable change from the summer campaign.
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A previous poll conducted by UC Berkeley (the Berkeley IGS / Los Angeles Times poll) showed Becerra with support from 55% of likely voters surveyed — compared with Hilton’s 37% — a previous 18-point margin.
Hilton characterized the PPIC poll as “misleading.”
“This poll is totally at odds with the latest poll on billionaire tax, which is 11% not 22%,” he told the Post, referring to another poll that was conducted by the group. “The GOP turnout is way off.”
“Californians are desperate for change and we have momentum,” he added. “Becerra is a career politician and electing him is four more years of the one-party rule of the last 16.”
The Post has reached out to Beccera for comment.
The numbers also represent a substantially wider margin than a separate Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies/Los Angeles Times poll conducted in August, which put Becerra ahead 55% to 37% among likely voters.
“Steve Hilton needed all the pieces to fall into place and for Xavier Becerra to make a major mistake to have a chance at victory this November,” Matt Klink a Republican strategist told the Post.
“Neither has happened and, unless something radically changes, we’re looking at a blowout by Secretary Becerra, who is largely hiding from the California voters,” he added.
The latest PPIC survey found that the candidates’ bases remain firmly behind them.
A whopping 93% of Democrats said they would vote for Becerra, while 92% of Republicans backed Hilton.
Independent voters, meanwhile, favored Becerra 57% to 38% — a 19-point advantage among voters who don’t identify with either major party.
Becerra also held majority support across age, education, gender, homeownership and income groups, according to PPIC.
The major exception was the Central Valley, where Hilton led 52% to 46%.
The survey comes with Californians less than two months away from deciding who will replace Gov. Gavin Newsom, who is barred from seeking another term.
“Becerra is taking a very low-key approach because he has such a big lead that he is going to run out the clock,” Klink said, pointing to Becerra’s lack of public appearances and media interviews.
The survey also found support for the controversial billionaire tax: fifty-two percent would vote yes on Proposition 40 which, if passed, would Imposes a one-time 5% tax.
Affordability could be a major factor in the contest.
Sixty-five percent of likely voters said the candidates’ positions on affordability would be very important in determining their vote.
That issue comes as Californians express considerable economic pessimism.
PPIC found 71% of California adults expect bad financial times for the state over the next 12 months, while 54% said things in California are generally going in the wrong direction.
Hilton has made California’s cost of living and business climate central to his campaign, while Becerra is campaigning as the Democratic nominee after serving as California attorney general and U.S. Health and Human Services secretary.
The former Biden appointee surged into the lead during the primaries when Democratic front-runner Eric Swalwell dropped out amid multiple rape allegations and a DOJ investigation.
The governor’s race is not the only contest showing a sizable Democratic advantage.
In California’s House races, 62% of likely voters said they would support the Democratic candidate in their district, compared with 36% for the Republican candidate, according to PPIC.
The poll surveyed 1,745 California adults, including 1,103 likely voters, and was conducted online in English and Spanish by Ipsos using its KnowledgePanel.
Election Day is November 3, 2026.
