A growing number of California Democrats are embracing an unusual election strategy ahead of the state’s crowded gubernatorial primary: waiting until the final possible moment to cast their ballots.
The tactic is being fueled by anxiety within left-wing circles over the state’s open primary system, where the top two candidates advance to the November election regardless of party affiliation, infamously earning the name “jungle primary.”
With multiple Democrats splitting the vote and two Republicans performing strongly in polling, some progressive activists fear a scenario in which Democrats are entirely excluded from the general election, CalMatters reported.
The concern intensified earlier in the race when many Democratic voters rallied around former Congressman Eric Swalwell in hopes of consolidating support behind a single candidate.
Swalwell’s campaign, which at the time was gaining momentum as he lead polls among others his block, collapsed after multiple women accused him of sexual assault, reopening uncertainty among Democratic voters searching for a viable contender.
Now, some party activists and politically engaged voters are urging Democrats to hold on to their ballots until late in the election cycle, monitor polling trends and then unite behind whichever Democrat appears most capable of advancing.
Katie Evans-Reber, a San Francisco voter, said the uncertainty has changed the way she plans to vote this year.
“In a normal year,” Evans-Reber said she would likely support former U.S. Rep. Katie Porter, even though Porter currently trails the frontrunners in polling. But Evans-Reber said the political stakes feel much higher this election cycle.
She worries that voters who once supported President Donald Trump but have since become disillusioned with him could shift toward Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco, strengthening his campaign alongside Republican Steve Hilton, the former Fox News host who currently leads much of the polling field.
If both Republicans finish in the top two, Democrats will not be in power in a state long hailed as deep blue and reliable for liberal candidates.
“The thing that flipped for me was going from, ‘I don’t really know what to do,’ to, ‘I strategically am not making a decision,” Evans-Reber told CalMatters.
Former Health and Human Services Secretary Xavier Becerra has emerged as the leading Democrat following Swalwell’s exit from contention, climbing rapidly in statewide surveys after initially polling in the single digits.
As Becerra’s campaign has gained momentum, scrutiny over his tenure leading the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services and his previous role as California attorney general has also intensified.
Some former Biden staffers also felt he was not ready to be governor and did a poor job as cabinet secretary.
Other Democrats seeking the governorship include billionaire activist Tom Steyer, former Congresswoman Porter and San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan, who has promoted himself as a moderate closely aligned with Silicon Valley’s technology industry.
Evans-Reber said she and other Democratic voters have been encouraging similar “wait and see” voting strategies through social media posts and online videos.
One widely circulated post incorrectly claimed the strategy originated with political historian Heather Cox Richardson, author of the popular Substack newsletter “Letters from an American.” Evans-Reber later clarified that Richardson had no involvement.
“It’s not like, bad advice, but it’s 100% not coming from me,” Cox Richardson told CalMatters in an interview.
Not everyone within Democratic political circles supports the approach.
Democratic consultant Paul Mitchell criticized the strategy, arguing it undermines long-standing efforts to encourage early participation in elections.
“It’s just a bad message,” he said. “I think they should always have a message of, ‘As soon as you get your ballot, fill it out, turn it in, mail it in and get it done.”
Mitchell also questioned whether organized strategic voting efforts would significantly alter the outcome.
“I think people vote for whoever they were going to vote for anyway,” said Mitchell, whose company monitors daily ballot returns throughout California.
The push for delayed voting has also raised concerns among election officials already struggling with California’s lengthy ballot-counting process.
Gov. Gavin Newsom recently urged county election offices to speed up reporting timelines and warned against misinformation surrounding the election process.
“Time is of the essence in preventing election lies from taking hold,” Newsom wrote in a letter sent to all 58 county registrars encouraging them to “tabulate and release results quickly and accurately.”
Attorney General Rob Bonta said social media campaigns promoting last-minute voting could amount to misinformation or even potentially unlawful conduct, while Secretary of State Shirley Weber said her office would review the posts.
Election experts warn that ballots submitted on Election Day create additional logistical challenges for counties already overwhelmed with processing mailed and in-person votes.
Kim Alexander, president of the California Voter Foundation, described the backlog as the “pig in the python effect,” referring to the surge of ballots election workers must process at once.
Polling experts also caution that California’s unusually large gubernatorial field — which includes more than 60 candidates — makes it especially difficult to predict voter behavior.
“This election’s got all the elements you have to deal with,” pollster Mark DiCamillo said. “It’s a challenge for the polling profession.”
Despite concerns surrounding delayed voting, Evans-Reber said she still intends to wait until the final hours before submitting her ballot.
“I am going to cast the ballot at the very last possible moment,” Evans-Reber said. “I’m going to wait until polling day.”
