“Stay tuned.”
That’s what US regulators are telling On The Money when asked about the notable lack of enforcement cases filed over suspicious trades in the futures and prediction markets surrounding big news events in the Iran war and elsewhere.
So far, there has been exactly one case — filed by the Department of Justice and the Commodities Futures Trading Commission against a US Army intelligence officer who allegedly used his insider knowledge of the capture of Nicolas Maduro to bag $400,000 on Polymarket.
Be patient, I am told — others are in the works. In fact, the unusually close relationship between the heads of two of the agencies in the forefront of the probes — Paul Atkins, the chair of the Securities and Exchange Commission, and Michael Selig, chief of the CFTC — is creating a streamlined approach, these sources say.
Specifically, the SEC and the CFTC, which have a long history of turf wars that stymied regulation, have brokered an unusual jurisdictional peace accord, these sources say.
Indeed, it’s worth noting that during the Biden years, the SEC clashed with the CFTC over the regulation of crypto — and with mixed results. Under then-SEC chair Gary Gensler, the commission took the position that nearly all digital coins (aside from Bitcoin) were “securities,” and thus regulated by the SEC.
While the CFTC argued that most crypto fell under its watch as commodities, Gensler won most of those battles. In any case, the lack of cooperation created an uneven regulatory framework for crypto. Major scandals like the Sam Bankman-Fried fraud case went unnoticed until it was too late.
Enter Atkins and Selig, who have enjoyed a long standing working relationship both in regulatory matters and in private practice. Most recently, Selig worked as the chief counsel of Atkins’ Crypto Task Force, the Trump’s administration’s in-house team to create a regulatory framework that doesn’t overly burden the $3 trillion digital asset industry.
That is, until Selig was confirmed late last year as CFTC chief. Since then, the two have been busy formulating rules and comparing notes. The result, I am told, will be a thorough investigation of all those bizarre and outrageous trades you’ve been reading about on these pages.
Of course, the proof will be in the results. It is head-scratching, after all, that maybe the biggest and most suspicious trades of them all, the timely bets on oil and S&P futures in March just before President Trump announced a pause in the conflict, remain a mystery to the public.
That said, Atkins and Selig have been meeting regularly mapping out clear jurisdictional boundaries, I am told. Both are taking aim at the prediction markets, though in different ways.
The CFTC regulates the so-called event contracts on these platforms, which have become not just a favorite for sports gamblers but also speculators in financial markets. The SEC, meanwhile, will take the lead on derivatives in the prediction markets of various stocks and bonds – so-called securities-based swaps that meet the legal definition of a security as opposed to a commodity.
“These guys get along great,” one regulatory insider who knows both men told On The Money.
Nice to hear. Now let’s see some cases.
