Voter Poll shows how Democrats swept 2026 midterm elections

In a historic midterm election, Democrats swept both the House and Senate, riding a blue wave spurred by widespread voter discontent. The economy, government corruption, war in Iran and increasingly negative views of President Donald Trump’s job performance created a perfect storm for Democrats to flip Senate seats in Republican stronghold states.

At the time of publication, Democrats hold a 54-seat majority in the Senate and have secured 228 seats in the house. The tossup Senate race in Alaska remains too close to call at this time.

The Voter Poll surveyed more than 100,000 registered voters nationwide from Oct. 19 to Nov. 3, 2026, combining online and telephone interviews with in-person surveys of Election Day voters.

After the strong rightward shifts in the 2024 election, this year’s midterms marked a turn back to the left. The electorate remained divided by community type, gender, and education, a pattern that has become commonplace in recent elections. Suburban and urban voters, women and Hispanics sided with Democrats, while rural voters, men and voters without a college degree favored Republicans.

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The Voter Poll offers insight into the demographic behind Republican votes. ()

Groups that helped power Trump’s 2024 win — namely rural, Hispanic, young, and independent voters — moved decidedly toward Democrats.

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A pivotal group in his win, rural voters backed Trump by 28 points in 2024. That advantage dropped by 10 points, to just 18 points in favor of Republican House candidates.

The Voter Poll offers insight into how rural voters cast their ballots in the House elections. ()

Republicans underperformed among rural women. After Trump carried them by 21 points in 2024, Republican House candidates led among them by 8 points this year, an 13-point decline.

The Voter Poll offers insight into how rural women voted in the House elections. ()

At the same time, suburban women marched firmly toward Democrats. Harris won them by a 14-point margin, and they broke for Democratic House candidates by 24 points.

The Voter Poll reveals how suburban women voted in the House elections. ()

That shift extended beyond community divides. Hispanic voters, who showed surprising support for Trump two years ago, backed Democratic House candidates by 27 points, after breaking for Harris by just 12 points. This was driven largely by Hispanic men, who after narrowly voting for Harris by 2 points in 2024, sided with the Democrats by 15 points.

The Voter Poll offers insight into voting patterns among Hispanic voters. ()

The Voter Poll reveals how Hispanic men voted in the House elections. ()

Young voters also followed a similar pattern. Often considered a reliable Democratic voting bloc, those under age 30 defied conventional wisdom and narrowly backed Harris by 4 points in 2024. Now, they backed Democratic House candidates by nearly 3-to-1.

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The Voter Poll offers insight into how voters under age 30 cast their ballots. ()

Young men made a complete reversal in their party preference, going from a 15-point margin for Trump to a 33-point margin for the Democratic House candidates, a 48-point swing.

The Voter Poll reveals how young men voted in the House elections. ()

Slightly more Democrats than Republicans backed their party’s House candidates.

The Voter Poll offers insight into how Democrats voted in the House elections. ()

The Voter Poll offers insight into how Republicans voted in the House elections. ()

While there was a small amount of defection on the right, the bigger move came from the middle. Independents backed Democratic candidates by 22 points, a 16-point shift from 2024, when they backed Harris by just 6 points.

The Voter Poll reveals how independent voters cast their ballots in the House elections. ()

Within the Republican Party, the divide between MAGA and non-MAGA Republicans widened. A narrow majority of Republicans (54%) considered themselves MAGA, and they voted almost unanimously for Republican candidates (99%). Fewer non-MAGA Republicans stayed with their party (85%).

The Voter Poll offers insight into how MAGA and non-MAGA Republicans voted in the House elections. ()

Beyond the demographic shifts, this was an election cycle marked by voter pessimism, economic frustration, and disillusionment with the Republican brand.

Voters cast their ballots with a bleak view of the country in their minds. Three-quarters said they felt dissatisfied or angry about how things were going, while just a quarter were satisfied or enthusiastic.

The Voter Poll reveals how Americans feel about the direction of the country. ()

The anger divides along partisan lines: more than 6 in 10 Democrats were angry with how things were going, compared with 1 in 10 Republicans and more than a third of independents. This is a reversal from the 2022 midterms, when roughly half of Republicans were angry, compared with 15% of Democrats and 27% of independents.

Frustration with the present extended into the future. Half said they expected life for the next generation to be worse than life today, twice the share who expected it to be better.

The Voter Poll offers insight into voters’ expectations for the next generation of Americans. ()

Voters took those frustrations out on the president. Trump’s job approval stood at 38%-62%, a net rating of -24, and that disapproval was intense. More than half strongly disapproved of his job performance, double the number who strongly approved.

The Voter Poll reveals how voters rate President Donald Trump’s job performance. ()

Eight years ago, at the midterm point in his first term, his job approval rating was a stronger 44%-56%, a net rating of just -12.

Even without Trump on the ballot, he was on the minds of many Americans. More said they cast their House vote to express opposition to him than to support him, nearly a 3-to-1 margin.

The Voter Poll offers insight into how President Donald Trump influenced voters’ House election decisions. ()

Part of that opposition came from a sense that Trump did not understand what voters were going through. More voters said Trump prioritized his own personal interests than the country’s.

The Voter Poll reveals whether voters believe President Donald Trump prioritizes his own interests or those of the country. ()

They also gave him low marks on personal traits. More than 6 in 10 said he lacked the right priorities and did not fight for people like them. Narrow majorities said he was not a strong leader and lacked the mental capability to serve effectively.

The president’s standing was also a drag on his party. Two years after winning unified control of Washington, the Republican Party was -18 points underwater, a -15-point slide from its net rating of -3 in 2024.

The Voter Poll reveals how voters view the Republican Party. ()

The Democratic Party was unpopular as well, but its net rating held nearly steady, from -7 to -6.

The Voter Poll reveals how voters view the Democratic Party. ()

Each party’s voters were about equally loyal: nearly all Republicans and Democrats viewed their own party favorably. Independents were more favorable toward the Democrats, with 42% viewing the Democratic Party favorably, while they rated the Republican Party negatively by about 2-to-1.

Views of the party also tracked the views of its leader. Democrats were nearly unanimous in their disapproval of Trump, while about 8 in 10 Republicans approved. Roughly 7 in 10 independents viewed the president unfavorably.

The Voter Poll offers insight into President Donald Trump’s job approval among Democrats. ()

The Voter Poll offers insight into President Donald Trump’s job approval among Republicans. ()

Two years ago, voters gave the Republicans a chance to bring prices down. This year, they said tariffs, inflation, and a war in Iran pushed costs higher, and they used this election to call for change.

The effects of inflation were inescapable for the majority, including 1 in 5 who called that hardship severe.

The Voter Poll reveals how inflation has affected American families. ()

Three-quarters rated the economy negatively, a stark reversal from this point in Trump’s first term, when positive ratings outnumbered negative ones by 2-to-1, as shown in the 2018 Voter Analysis survey (66% positive, 34% negative).

The Voter Poll offers insight into voters’ assessments of the U.S. economy. ()

Almost 7 in 10 of voters who gave the economy a negative rating voted for the Democrats. Among those with a positive economic outlook, Republicans were favored.

The Voter Poll reveals how voters with a negative view of the economy voted in the House elections. ()

The Voter Poll reveals how voters with a positive view of the economy voted in the House elections. ()

Within the household budget, concerns about prices varied little across categories. The cost of gas and diesel was at the top, a worry that followed the Iran war and its effect on fuel prices. Healthcare and groceries were right behind, and a majority were very concerned about utilities.

Voters’ views on Iran were closely linked to fuel costs. In general, about 6 in 10 believed the U.S. made the wrong decision in taking military action, and they backed the Democratic House candidate. Nearly all voters who called it the right decision supported Republicans.

In an exclusive survey by and NORC at the University of Chicago, voters were asked about various priorities regarding the Iran war. The survey of approximately 3,000 registered voters was conducted Nov. 1-3, 2026, by phone and online using NORC’s probability-based AmeriSpeak panel.

More than two-thirds said it was very important to avoid a prolonged conflict in Iran, while half said the same about stopping Iran from developing nuclear weapons.

Ultimately, gas prices took priority over security threats. When asked to choose, nearly twice as many voters preferred ending the military involvement to bring down gas prices as preferred restarting military action to stop nuclear weapons development.

More than 8 in 10 Democrats favored ending the conflict to bring down gas prices, as did around 6 in 10 independents. The same share of Republicans, 6 in 10, favored restarting military action. Still, just over half of Republicans saw it as very important to avoid a prolonged conflict in the region, as did a majority of Democrats and independents.

When it comes to higher-than-usual prices, voters were considerably more likely to point to Trump’s policies than to factors outside his control.

The Voter Poll reveals whether voters blame President Donald Trump’s policies for higher prices. ()

A majority said his policies had made conditions in the U.S. worse, while fewer said they improved conditions.

The Voter Poll offers insight into how voters believe President Donald Trump’s policies have affected the economy. ()

Tariffs were a central piece of that blame. About two-thirds said Trump’s tariffs hurt the national economy, and nearly as many said they hurt the economy in their own area. About 2 in 10 said tariffs helped the national economy, and even fewer said they helped locally.

The Voter Poll reveals how voters believe President Donald Trump’s tariffs have affected the national economy. ()

The Voter Poll offers insight into how voters believe President Donald Trump’s tariffs have affected their local economies. ()

While families wrestled with high prices, voters felt Trump was more focused on his own interests than the people he serves. That frustration extended to the economic system itself: nearly 7 in 10 said it favored the wealthy.

The Voter Poll reveals whether voters believe the U.S. economic system favors the wealthy. ()

Yet that skepticism coexisted with support for capitalism. More than half of voters viewed capitalism favorably, far more than the third who viewed socialism favorably. Voters liked the idea of the system but doubted how it worked for them.

The Voter Poll found that 32% of registered voters had an unfavorable view of capitalism, while 57% had a favorable view. ()

The Voter Poll found that 54% of registered voters had an unfavorable view of socialism, while 33% had a favorable view. ()

Government corruption and the cost of living were the two main drivers of the vote, with roughly half calling each crucial. Immigration and the Iran war followed closely, each crucial for more than a third, with AI and data centers further back. Democrats were the favored party among voters who said corruption, costs, Iran, and AI were crucial to their vote, while Republicans held their edge with voters focused on immigration.

The Voter Poll reveals which issues voters considered crucial to their House election decisions. ()

Frustration with costs and corruption was reflected in how voters saw the state of the country. The economy topped the list of issues facing the country, narrowly ahead of the state of democracy. Immigration came in a distant third, followed by healthcare, foreign policy, and crime.

The Voter Poll offers insight into which issues voters consider most important to the country. ()

The prominence of democracy came mainly from Democrats, who named the state of democracy as their top issue (48%), ahead of the economy (36%). Independents put the economy first (39%), with democracy close behind (34%). Republicans ranked democracy third (16%), behind the economy (41%) and immigration (27%).

Voters who named democracy and the economy as their top issue backed Democratic House candidates, while voters who prioritized immigration backed Republicans.

Democrats also held an advantage when it came to which party would do a better job handling six of the eight issues tested, though often by modest margins. Their largest edge was on healthcare, followed by transgender policies.

The Voter Poll reveals which political party voters trust more to handle healthcare. ()

The Voter Poll offers insight into which political party voters trust more to handle transgender policies. ()

On the economy — the issue voters saw as the most important facing the country — Democrats led by 6 points, similar to their margins on foreign policy (+5).

The Voter Poll reveals which political party voters trust more to handle the economy. ()

The Voter Poll offers insight into which political party voters trust more to handle foreign policy. ()

On government corruption, voters narrowly favored Democrats, but a third did not trust either party to handle one of the top issues facing the country.

The Voter Poll reveals which political party voters trust more to address government corruption. ()

Republicans led only on immigration, with a 3-point lead. The parties ran even on taxes, and finished within two points of each other on AI.

The Voter Poll offers insight into which political party voters trust more to handle immigration. ()

The Voter Poll reveals which political party voters trust more to handle taxes. ()

On healthcare, concern about costs was widespread, and those voters backed the Democratic House candidates. A clear majority favored a bigger federal role in helping Americans get care.

The Voter Poll reveals how voters view the federal government’s role in helping Americans access healthcare. ()

Consequently, they gave the Trump administration poor marks on the issue, with majorities saying its policies made it harder to get the care they needed and made their own costs worse.

The Voter Poll offers insight into how voters believe Trump administration policies have affected healthcare costs. ()

On AI, voters approached this new political issue with wariness. A majority said it would do more to hurt society, a consensus reached by Democrats, Republicans, and independents alike, while a quarter said it would do more to help. Among partisans, Republicans were the most likely to say AI would have a positive impact on society, at 33%.

The Voter Poll reveals whether voters believe artificial intelligence will help or hurt society. ()

At this point, neither party had a clear advantage on the issue: AI drew the highest share choosing neither party as better able to handle it, and the two parties finished within 2 points of each other, with Democrats narrowly pulling ahead.

The Voter Poll offers insight into which political party voters trust more to handle artificial intelligence. ()

Data center construction drew a similar verdict. Three-quarters of voters opposed a new data center in their community. Those who opposed one backed the Democratic House candidates by 28 points, while those in favor backed Republicans by 45 points.

Among rural voters, data centers had emerged as a defining issue. They also split 3-to-1 in opposition to building one in their community.

On immigration, Republicans were favored to handle, but voters delivered a verdict of overreach on enforcement. A majority said the Trump administration’s actions had gone too far, with the rest split between about right and not far enough.

The Voter Poll offers insight into how voters assess the Trump administration’s immigration enforcement policies. ()

Immigration and Customs Enforcement received mostly negative marks, with a majority of voters disapproving of its job performance. Most voters viewed immigrants favorably, saying they do more to help the country than to hurt it.

The Voter Poll reveals how voters rate Immigration and Customs Enforcement’s job performance. ()

Ratings of the institutions themselves were low. Congress drew approval from roughly a quarter, and the Supreme Court drew approval from about 4 in 10.

The Voter Poll reveals how voters rate Congress’ job performance. ()

The Voter Poll offers insight into how voters rate the Supreme Court’s job performance. ()

Voters wanted a stronger Congress. A majority said Congress was not doing enough to provide checks and balances on the presidency, and those voters backed Democratic House candidates by 49 points.

The Voter Poll reveals whether voters believe Congress is doing enough to provide checks and balances on the presidency. ()

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The Voter Poll is a survey conducted by SSRS with more than 100,000 registered voters nationwide. This survey was conducted Oct. 19 to Nov. 3, 2026, concluding at the end of voting on Election Day. The poll combines data collected from registered voters online and by telephone with data collected in-person from Election Day voters at precincts across the country. In the final step, all the pre-election survey respondents and Election Day exit poll respondents are combined by adjusting the share of voting mode (absentee, early-in-person, and Election Day) based on the estimated composition of the national electorate. Once votes are counted, the survey results are also weighted to match the national election results. Results among all registered voters interviewed nationwide have an estimated margin of sampling error of plus or minus 0.5 percentage points, including the design effects. The error margin is larger among subgroups. Full methodological details are available here.

The /NORC AmeriSpeak Study is a national survey of registered voters conducted by NORC at the University of Chicago. This survey was conducted Nov. 1-3, 2026, concluding as polls close on Election Day. The poll is based on a random sample of approximately 3,000 registered voters drawn from NORC’s probability-based AmeriSpeak panel, interviewed online and by telephone in English and Spanish. Survey weights adjust to population totals for demographic and geographic characteristics, as well as voter-specific information including partisanship, and, once votes are counted, the results are weighted to the national popular vote for the House of Representatives. Results among all 3,464 registered voters interviewed nationwide have an estimated margin of sampling error of plus or minus 2.5 percentage points, including the design effects. The error margin is larger among subgroups.