WASHINGTON — President Trump’s proposed 20% toll on commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz could generate nearly $200 billion annually in revenue — a windfall large enough to cover about half of the federal civilian payroll.
Trump announced the concept on Monday — after months of rejecting Iran’s plan for post-war tolls — in what could amount to a negotiating tactic.
Brandon Daniels, CEO of supply chain AI company Exiger, told The Post that the annual volume of international commerce in the strait was between $880 billion and $970 billion before the war.
That would translate into Trump tolls of between $176 billion and $194 billion — an amount that would, if enacted, cover the compensation for about 1 million or more federal civilian workers.
“I don’t think that there is a real mechanism for us to charge that toll at this moment, and how we would charge that toll is still an open question of both economic policy and international law,” said Daniels.
The US government has announced no concrete steps toward imposing the levy.
Trump’s abrupt announcement is a break from his longstanding position that the strait should be toll-free after the conflict ends with Tehran — so much so that administration insiders believe he’s establishing space to negotiate with the Islamic Republic, which wants to impose its own fees.
“It’s a negotiation,” a source close to Trump told The Post. “It’s real until there’s an alternative arrangement.”
Trump has for months been attempting to broker an end to the Iran war that started Feb. 28. A cease-fire took effect on April 7 and was followed by a memorandum of understanding (MOU) that Trump signed June 17 calling for a 60-day toll-free reopening of the strait while nuclear talks continue.
Trump ordered airstrikes against Iran last Wednesday and declared both the cease-fire and MOU “over” — in what some advisers dubbed “Operation Bitch Slap.”
The latest tensions emerged from disagreement over shipping lanes through the strait. Iran’s military attacked three commercial ships last Monday and Tuesday after they followed a US-preferred route rather than one closer to the Iranian shoreline as the foes sought primacy over the waterway.
Trump unveiled his idea for a toll in a statement announcing a reimposition of a US blockade on Iranian ports.
“We are reinstating the THE IRANIAN BLOCKADE, so named because it is only stopping Iran’s ships or customers from entering or leaving. All other countries will have fair and open use of the Strait,” Trump wrote.
“The U.S.A. will be, from this point forward, known as ‘THE GUARDIAN OF THE HORMUZ STRAIT,’ but as such, and as a matter of FAIRNESS, will be reimbursed, at the rate of 20% on all cargo shipped, for any and all costs necessary to do the job of providing safety and security to this very volatile section of the World. The process and formation will begin immediately.”
The White House did not identify any steps toward imposing the US toll and sources close to the war effort told The Post those plans were not immediately widely distributed.
Asked about the start date of the new fee and whether any countries would be exempt, the US military’s Central Command, which conducts operations in the region, directed The Post to a statement focused on reimposition of the blockade on Iran.
The Persian Gulf is a crucial source of global energy, and Daniels said his firm’s supply chain data suggests about $600 billion in annual shipments of crude oil and between $80 billion and $120 billion annually in liquefied natural gas (LNG).
Roughly $200 billion-$250 billion in additional annual trade transit the bottleneck, including fertilizer, helium and hardened polymers, Daniels said.
A number of factors bear on the precise hypothetical proceeds, including the current market value of oil and LNG, as well as whether Trump would grant exceptions or discounts to allies in the region, such as Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the UAE.
Iranian foreign minister Abbas Araghchi trolled Trump’s announcement.
“POTUS is absolutely right. Whoever provides secure and safe passage of commercial vessels through the Strait of Hormuz should be compensated for this service,” Araghchi tweeted. “Iran has always been the GUARDIAN of the Strait and will remain so FOREVER. 20% is of course too much. We will be fair.”
