WASHINGTON — President Trump is the undisputed GOP kingpin.
The 79-year-old is reveling in a perfect endorsement track record across 118 Republican House, Senate, and gubernatorial primaries this cycle, illustrating how his influence within the party is stronger than it’s ever been.
“After years of weak globalists and elitists leading our party, President Trump transformed the GOP into the party of the working class,” Sen. Bernie Moreno (R-Ohio) told The Post Wednesday. “Newsflash to those who still have not caught on: Support the America First agenda or lose your election.”
While only about a third of the GOP primaries for 2026 have wrapped up, Trump-endorsed candidates have emerged triumphant in 110 congressional primaries — 101 House races and nine Senate races, along with eight gubernatorial campaigns, according to a Fox News tracker — including the most hotly contested races of the cycle.
Among the longtime incumbents to fall foul of Trump’s electoral sway were Sens. John Cornyn (R-Texas) and Bill Cassidy (R-La.), as well the president’s arch-nemesis in the House, Rep. Thomas Massie (R-Ky.).
Cassidy’s May 16 primary defeat made him the first Republican senator since Indiana’s Richard Lugar in 2012 to not be nominated by party voters during a regular election cycle.
Even in state legislative contests, Trump’s stamp of approval has proven to be a lifeline — or a political kiss of death.
Earlier this month, Trump-backed primary candidates took down five of seven Indiana state senators who defied him over mid-decade redistricting, though one of those losses is subject to a recount.
“The Republicans have real leadership — that’s unquestionable,” said veteran Democratic consultant Hank Sheinkopf. “And the party faithful respond to him, respond to that leader, Donald Trump, and it’s his political party.”
In all, the president has backed a Republican candidate in 295 2026 primaries — and more loyalty tests could be at hand after Trump threatened GOP Rep. Lauren Boebert (R-Colo.) with a challenge over her support for Massie.
However, a source familiar with the president’s thinking claimed Wednesday that Trump was “not focused on Boebert right now.
“That’s a next-cycle [2028] thing,” this person said. “He may or may not weigh in on the Georgia Senate race and a number of other target House races. Probably some statewides, too.”
Trump’s unblemished primary record is far more expansive than in 2018, his previous midterm in office, when he recorded a 95% success rate in GOP primaries from just 37 total endorsements, according to Ballotpedia.
In 2022, when Trump was out of office, his chosen candidates enjoyed a 93% success rate in primaries, a percentage that improved to 96% in 2024, according to Ballotpedia.
Henry Olsen, an elections expert and senior fellow at the Ethics and Public Policy Center, said that Trump’s role as GOP kingmaker would last at least until the end of his second term in January 2029, explaining the president had successfully “married a charismatic personality with a worldview that was represented by people who had not had that view represented before.”
Trump-backed candidates, Olsen said, are marked by an “aggressive” nationalism — “pursuing American interests but not international alliance interests” — and are enthusiastic about rooting out “non-American” ways of life that are being pushed by both “public and private institutions of power.”
“That is now a majority view among Republicans,” he added. “That philosophical change will outlast Trump’s personal endorsement … Nothing is permanent, but for the foreseeable future, which is, say, the next two to eight years, that is the dominant feature of the Republican primary process.”
Olsen, who hosts the elections-focused podcast “Beyond the Polls,” went on to say that Trump “maintained his strong personal endorsement brand even after January 6th, before his return to strong popularity, he was able to push most of his choices through in the 2022 primaries, and I think we just need to remember that this is a long standing ability of his, and so there’s no reason to think that it will decline any time before he leaves the Oval Office.”
Trump has leveraged his remarkable endorsement strength both to help Republicans avoid otherwise messy primary fights and to pursue a political revenge tour.
The former was the case in Michigan, where he backed Republican Mike Rogers for Senate early on, clearing the field of a potential challenger in Rep. Bill Huizenga (R-Mich.) so that the GOP could concentrate on what is seen as a key pickup opportunity.
With Republicans fighting historical headwinds in the Nov. 3 midterms, the Trump team has been more careful about endorsing quality candidates after some GOP strategists felt that was an issue in the 2022 midterms.
This go-around, potential endorsees are usually vetted by the White House political team before Trump officially backs them.
It remains to be seen how effective this approach will be in the general election.
Trump’s preferred candidates in 2024, 2022 and 2020 were elected at an 89%, 83% and 78% rate, respectively, according to Ballotpedia. In the 2018 midterms, just 59% of Trump-backed candidates were elected.
“This [2026] is a referendum on him,” Sheinkopf said. “It’s not even a referendum on policies. Now in his own party, the referendum on him was played out in Texas … and he won that argument.”
“But when it comes to the referendum on him nationally, well, that’s a different question,” he added. “It’s about Donald Trump … the same way in ’94, it was about [President Bill] Clinton and the healthcare plan. Now it’s about Trump, the [Iran] war, and costs.”
“Larger figures in history tend to dominate the argument — and he’s a large historical figure.”
Trump’s endorsement power has also proven to be a useful cudgel against congressional Republicans should they choose to get out of line on key votes.
In the short-term, it has led to headaches with the Senate GOP conference, as Cassidy and retiring Sen. Thom Tillis (R-NC), among others, have grown more outspoken against Trump since his turn away from them.
But his ability to vanquish GOP foes gives Trump critical leverage, signaling to rabble-rousers that he can destroy them politically if they get in his way.
