Amid the implosion of former Congressman Eric Swalwell’s gubernatorial campaign, the race to be California’s new governor next year is up for grabs as pundits guess who will fill in Swalwell’s leading position.
A poll released Tuesday may offer a clue: progressive billionaire Tom Steyer leads with 21% of likely voters and Republican candidate Steve Hilton is second at 18%, according to SurveyUSA.
Swalwell, who resigned from Congress Tuesday after bombshell sexual assault allegations, polled at third with 9% of voters. The poll was conducted from April 8 to 10, right as the accusations came to light and when rumors were swirling around.
The poll had a sample size of 1,200, including 788 likely voters.
Some internal polling had predicted Steyer and another Democrat, former Congresswoman Katie Porter, to take up the biggest shares of Swalwell voters after he dropped his campaign.
Much more of the momentum is seemingly on Steyer’s side, however. One of the biggest endorsers of Swalwell, the California Teachers Association, threw its backing behind Steyer on Wednesday.
Top polling expert Paul Mitchell, however, noted on X that there’s issues with the SurveyUSA poll. The poll only had 28 percent as seniors when arguably they could make up to 40 percent of voters. There are not enough Democrats and too many independents in the sampling size.
“All that said, I am not going to be surprised if a real pollster found Tom Steyer ahead right now,” Mitchell said. “I may have seen two polls already that showed him ahead or just slightly ahead of Porter.”
Recent internal polling by candidate and San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan also showed Steyer as the leading Democrat at 16% of the vote, but behind Hilton this time, who had 25%.
The Steyer campaign has been trying to seize the momentum.
“We are leading this race, California! My campaign is laser-focused on lowering costs for working Californians by building one million homes, cutting electric bills, delivering single-payer health care, and closing tax loopholes for corporations and billionaires,” he said in a statement touting the SurveyUSA poll.
The polling also shows that the odds of a Republican lockout — where Hilton and GOP Sheriff Chad Bianco take the top two spots in the June primary to guarantee a Republican governor in November — may have diminished.
