Tempo could go a long way in determining how St. John’s opening-round NCAA Tournament game goes Friday against No. 12 seed Northern Iowa.
The Missouri Valley Conference champions, who finished sixth in the quality mid-major league during the regular season, play at one of the slowest paces in the nation.
They don’t go after offensive rebounds, and they lead the nation in fewest points allowed (61.3). The Johnnies, the No. 5 seed in the East Region, are the opposite. They are at their best in transition by creating live-ball turnovers and pressuring the ball.
It is what makes this matchup so interesting.
“The pace of the game is the most important thing,” a Division I assistant coach who faced Northern Iowa this season and is familiar with St. John’s said in a phone interview. “If it’s slowed down and you’re playing a possession game, that would favor Northern Iowa because they’re going to be able to run their stuff and get cleaner looks. They’re not the type of team that wants to battle back from being down.
“They want it to be a back-and-forth game at a slower tempo.”
Led by longtime coach Ben Jacobson, the Panthers play a pack-line defense, the same system made famous at Virginia by Tony Bennett. They pack the paint and look to cut off driving lanes, daring the opposition to beat them from the perimeter. Northern Iowa is still third nationally in 3-point defense (28.9 percent). The Panthers are small — their tallest starter is 6-foot-8 forward Will Hornseth.
“Defensively, they’re really good at not necessarily turning you over, but making it really, really hard on you by packing the paint and forcing you to try and make jump shots,” the coach said. “People fall into the trap with pack-line defenses like they run, of thinking the right read is to kick out and shoot jumpers. If you’re not making them, you’re still thinking that’s the right read, and you can struggle with it.
“Just reading the closeouts is important. If they’re going to close out and still contest, having cutters and having Zuby [Ejiofor] in the paint or Zuby in the dunker, and just being able to finish plays at the rim because the reality is there’s not real shot-blockers in there.”
Northern Iowa is not nearly as strong on the other end of the floor. The Panthers rank 153rd in offensive efficiency and 278th in free-throw percentage (69.7), and they rarely go to the free-throw line, attempting 14.1 per game. Only Niagara gets to the line less. Northern Iowa’s leading scorer is senior guard Trey Campbell, who averages 13.7 points and was an All-Missouri Valley second-team selection.
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Northern Iowa has faced two teams that made the NCAA Tournament, losing to Saint Mary’s and topping Furman. The Panthers didn’t play a single power-conference opponent. They haven’t seen athleticism like St. John’s possesses.
“I just think St. John’s can physically overpower them, whether it’s throwing the ball into the paint — and I would assume Northern Iowa is going to be forced to double-team Zuby — and whether he’s scoring or making plays out of that,” the coach said.
“Then also attacking the offensive glass and overpowering them with length and athleticism. I think they’re susceptible to that.
“The way that St. John’s wants to play, getting up in you and pressuring the ball and making it hard for you to run your actions, I find it hard to believe that Northern Iowa has the type of players that can just break things off and go get a basket against the length and athleticism St. John’s has.”
