Unpredictability is the name of the game in The Open Championship’s gnarly conditions, and that can only breed betting value.
This year’s fourth and final major will head to Royal Birkdale for the 11th time in 154 years of tradition. It’s a place where off-line drives are punished by dense vegetation, towering dunes and pot bunkers.
This week’s warm and dry climates have firmed up the fairways and greens. Add in the unfriendly Irish Sea breezes and longshot winners are never out of the question, making outright markets more of a shot in the dark than usual.
That’s why head-to-head player matchups offer a more focused route to cashing on your bets this weekend. We can pinpoint the edge by weighing one player’s ball-striking and course fit against another’s.
Chris Gotterup over Xander Schauffele (+102, DraftKings)
Links play success is everything here.
Chris Gotterup has been one of the hottest players on the PGA Tour this year with three wins and five top-10 finishes. He finished third at last year’s Open and has already won on links terrain at the Renaissance Club at last year’s Scottish Open.
Schauffele has the better long-term major resume, but his current form is substantially weaker: T51 at the Travelers followed by a missed cut at the Scottish Open. He’s hung around in the last three majors, finishing no worse than T11, but this course will favor the better ball striker.
Gotterup ranks better in Strokes Gained: Approach the Green and Greens in Regulation Percentage. His concerning driving accuracy clip creates risk, but it’s worth grabbing him for plus money.
Russell Henley over Si Woo Kim (-118, DraftKings)
We’re looking at two guys here that possess the appropriate skill sets off the tee for Royal Birkdale. Russell Henley is the No. 1 player on Tour in Driving Accuracy with Kim ranked at No. 3.
On the subject of accuracy, Henley is hitting his targets all over the place. He also leads in Rough Tendency, Hit Fairway Percentage and Distance from the Edge of the Fairway.
But given how fast this course is going to play, I’m taking the chalk on Henley for his stronger short game.
Kim’s putting inconsistency — even though it’s improved in the last few months — makes him a wild card and it’s not even close between the two of them in Strokes Gained: Putting.
He’s an elite scrambler and brings stellar iron play, but doesn’t have a proven track record for links success.
Henley wasn’t always the most savvy links player. Recent years suggest he’s figuring it out, riding back-to-back top-10 Open finishes into Southport.
Why Trust New York Post Betting
Sean Treppedi handicaps the NFL, NHL, MLB and college football for the New York Post. He primarily focuses on picks that reflect market value while tracking trends to mitigate risk.
