WASHINGTON — The outcome of races for 10 House Republican incumbents will determine whether the lower chamber falls to Democrats in the 2026 midterm elections.
All the GOP lawmakers have expressed confidence in their re-election despite the historic headwinds their party faces and President Trump’s growing unpopularity.
But several have also survived tough matchups in the past and are counting on their legislative record to help them defend the GOP’s 218-214 majority in the House.
Rep. Mike Lawler (R-NY)
Hudson Valley Rep. Mike Lawler was first elected to Congress in 2022 as one of several New York Republicans who helped deliver them the House during former President Joe Biden’s presidency.
His reelection would be a big step to keeping GOP control of the House under Trump.
Lawler, 40, opted against a run for governor in his state and has consistently touted himself as one of the most bipartisan members of the lower chamber and as a Republican who is willing to break publicly with the president on health care, tax and immigration issues.
The latest poll shows Lawler and his opponent, Cait Conley, an Army combat veteran and ex-Biden administration official, in a statistical tie.
Rep. Tom Barrett (R-Mich.)
The Michigan Republican is serving his first term in the House after winning election to a seat left vacant by then-Rep. Elissa Slotkin, who triumphed in her 2024 Senate race.
Some polls have shown Barrett, an Army helicopter pilot and Iraq war veteran, beating his Democratic opponent this cycle, William Lawrence, a self-described democratic socialist who’s drawn scrutiny for eyebrow-raising remarks wishing death on a centrist lawmaker.
Rep. Jen Kiggans (R-Va.)
Kiggans was one of several House Republicans whose seat was threatened through a redistricting effort pushed by Virginia Democrats that was eventually struck down by the courts.
But surveys are still showing her tied or in a statistical tie with Democrat Elaine Luria, who previously lost the seat in Virginia’s Second District to Kiggans in 2022.
Rep. Max Miller (R-Ohio)
Ohio Rep. Max Miller is headed into the toughest re-election race of his time in the House after a much-publicized divorce from Emily Moreno, the daughter of Sen. Bernie Moreno (R-Ohio), and a subsequent custody battle dredged up details about his alleged physical abuse.
The Republican pol has denied accusations of abuse from his former spouse and even leveled the same charge at her.
Miller’s challenger, Brian Poindexter, has also been surging in some surveys — despite the 7th District being historically Republican since the 1930s.
Rep. Monica De La Cruz (R-Texas)
The Texas GOPer is trailing political newcomer and Latin Grammy-winning artist Bobby Pulido in most polls, even as the Democrat has faced tough questions about performing alongside a registered sex offender in his band.
De La Cruz first won election in the Lone Star State’s 15th District in 2022 and was re-elected in 2024.
A Republican-led, mid-decade redistricting in Texas last year didn’t appear to give her a greater advantage.
Rep. Derrick Van Orden (R-Wis.)
House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) has publicly rejected polling showing that Van Orden is in trouble in Wisconsin, claiming that Republican voters are being undercounted.
The few surveys conducted have only had Democratic sponsors, lending credence to the speaker’s theory.
The Wisconsin Republican is in a rematch race against Democrat Rebecca Cooke, a small business owner he defeated by more than 11,000 votes in 2024.
Rep. Scott Perry (R-Pa.)
The latest surveys show Perry in a dead heat with Democrat Janelle Stelson in Pennsylvania’s 10th District — in another rematch race from 2024.
It’s the most difficult re-election Perry has faced since he began serving in the House in 2013, though Republicans’ shellacking in the 2018 midterms comes close.
Rep. Gabe Evans (R-Colo.)
Internal polls aligned with Evans’ re-election effort have put him in either a statistical tie or dead even race against Democrat Manny Rutinel.
The Colorado Republican unseated Rep. Yadira Caraveo (D-Colo.) in 2024.
Rep. David Valadao (R-Calif.)
Valadao will offer the first of whether a Democrat-led redistricting effort in California successfully took a handful of GOP seats out of competition for the House.
After handily winning re-election in 2024, the Republican rep is facing Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.)-backed Randy Villegas in the Golden State’s 22nd District.
Rep. Juan Ciscomani (R-Ariz.)
Even some GOP-aligned polls are showing Ciscomani headed for defeat on Election Day against Democrat and Marine veteran JoAnna Mendoza.
Ciscomani was one of several Republicans elected in 2022 who delivered their party the House.
