You can set your clock to the Carolina Hurricanes.
In the playoffs for the eighth year on the spin under Rod Brind’Amour, the Canes won the Metropolitan Division for the third time in the last five seasons, and they hit the 110-point mark for the fourth time in the last five campaigns.
In a wide-open Eastern Conference, you’d think this would be the best opportunity for the Canes to finally make their way back to the Stanley Cup Finals, but there is a fly in the ointment.
Carolina’s opponent in Round 1, the Ottawa Senators, is one of the hottest teams in the playoff field. The Sens went 16-5-4 in their last 25 games, a run that caused their Stanley Cup odds to crater from 80/1 at the Olympic break to 20/1 ahead of the dance.
The Hurricanes are still the favorite, and they’re a deserving one, but the odds for this clash are a lot tighter than the normal No. 1 vs. No. 8 matchup.
Hurricanes vs. Senators Game 1 odds, predictions
Ottawa’s season was bizarre. The team boasted one of the best statistical profiles throughout the 82-game campaign, but the results never followed. The culprit was poor goaltending.
The Sens simply could not get a save for the first half of the season. Linus Ullmark took a leave of absence, forcing Ottawa to use five different netminders throughout the campaign. None worked, but Ullmark found his form after the Olympics, posting a .902 save percentage and plus-11 Goals Saved Above Expected (GSAx) in his final 19 games.
Those aren’t all-world numbers, but they’re certainly solid, and given Ottawa’s dominance at 5-on-5, they are more than strong enough to make the Sens a real threat as long as Ullmark carries his form into the tournament.
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And while a lot of teams can’t cope with Carolina’s chaotic, throw-everything-at-the-net mentality, the Sens are well-equipped to handle it.
Only two teams (Tampa Bay and Carolina) surrendered fewer shot attempts at 5-on-5 than Ottawa this season, and only three (Vegas, Tampa Bay, and Philadelphia) conceded fewer high-danger scoring chances. By expected goals, the Sens were the second-best defensive team at 5-on-5 in the NHL this season. By actual goals, they were 19th.
Goaltending was also a huge issue for the Canes. It is the one thing that is giving the market pause. If the Hurricanes had stability in the blue paint, they’d be the runaway favorite to win the East. But that’s not the case. Carolina was 24th in the NHL with an .880 save percentage during the regular season, and they will go into the tournament with three healthy goaltenders that don’t have a great track record in the postseason.
Freddie Andersen, the veteran, has the best playoff numbers and easily the most experience, but he’s wilted in series against the Panthers and Rangers in recent years. Brandon Bussi, a rookie from Long Island, just finished his first campaign at the NHL level and saw his numbers fade after a red-hot start to the season. Pyotr Kochetkov barely played in 2025-26.
Against a different opponent, these concerns would not be alarming. Carolina can paper over poor goaltending by drastically out-shooting opponents, relieving the pressure on its netminder. That is not likely to be the case against Ottawa.
The Senators are a live underdog in Game 1, this series, and are worth a hard look to win the Stanley Cup if you’re looking for a team to root for this spring.
The Play: Senators to win the series (+145, DraftKings)
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Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.
