WASHINGTON — The main Senate Republican campaign arm is eyeing at least three pick up opportunities to expand their majority in the 2026 midterms, even as public polls and operatives suggest holding onto five other seats in battleground states will put some candidates into an “all-out fight.”
The National Republican Senatorial Committee, which held a meeting with senators to discuss strategy earlier this week, is defending seats in Iowa, Alaska, Ohio, Maine and North Carolina.
GOP challengers recruited by the committee are also angling to replace retiring Democrat-held seats in Michigan and New Hampshire — and defeating Sen. Jon Ossoff in Georgia — but that will depend in large part on the success of their economic messaging.
“That is where the battleground for the majority is,” a Republican operative told The Post, noting that the Democratic Senatorial Congressional Committee is sending its resources to the same eight states.
Democrats are currently enjoying a five-percentage point lead on the generic congressional ballot, according to the RealClearPolitics polling aggregator.
At Tuesday’s NRSC briefing, which was first reported by Axios, Chairman Tim Scott (R-SC) outlined an attack plan for the remaining nine months of the campaign cycle heavily focused on the passage of President Trump’s marquee tax-and-spending legislation, the One Big Beautiful Bill.
Scott instructed senators to highlight how every Democrat refused to vote for the bill, which each Republican member has since been messaging in their own way — some by referring to it as the Working Families Tax Cut.
“Republicans feel that Trump has given them an arsenal of positive economic messaging that we now have to use to win the war,” said one person familiar with the briefing, acknowledging that the party was also facing “headwinds” ahead of Nov. 3.
National Republicans are confident about the re-election race for Sen. Dan Sullivan in Alaska, the special election for Sen. John Husted of Ohio to keep his seat after filling the vacancy following JD Vance’s elevation to vice president and Rep. Ashley Hinson’s run to replace retiring Iowa Sen. Joni Ernst.
But the GOP operative noted that North Carolina is expected to be one of those tough match-ups — with formidable candidate in former Gov. Roy Cooper and “probably one of the most expensive races in the country,” according to the operative.
Former Republican National Committee Chairman Michael Whatley is challenging Cooper in that race following Sen. Thom Tillis’ announcement that he would not be seeking re-election.
Meanwhile, Maine is also likely to be a “difficult” contest for sitting GOP Sen. Susan Collins after a “nasty primary” concludes between state Gov. Janet Mills and political newcomer Graham Platner, per the Republican insider.
The Pine Tree State is the bluest state on the map and either Mills or Platner would make a “tough general election candidate,” the operative added, while noting the Democratic governor’s unpopularity and Platner’s awkward attempt to cover up a Nazi-linked tattoo inked years ago.
GOPers have expressed the most confidence in picking up seats in Georgia, Michigan and New Hampshire.
Ossoff is viewed by the party as the most vulnerable incumbent due to his voting record in the swing state on transgender sports issues and pre-emptively pushing for Trump’s impeachment before other members of his own party.
Senate candidate Mike Rogers is also seen as presenting the “number one pickup opportunity besides Georgia” when he faces off against the winner of a heated Democratic primary fight in Michigan, the operative noted.
And in New Hampshire, Republicans are bullish on John Sununu — who served in the US Senate from 2003 to 2009 and just received Trump’s endorsement earlier this week — besting Rep. Chris Pappas (D-NH) to fill the vacancy left by retiring Sen. Jeanne Shaheen.
The DSCC has a slight cash-on-hand advantage of more than $21.7 million, compared with the NRSC’s nearly $19.4 million — though the GOP out-fundraised Dems by more than $8 million in 2025.
The fundraising figures will be necessary if outlier contests in Texas — which is currently experiencing a three-way GOP primary including sitting Sen. John Cornyn — and Minnesota heat up.
The Land of 10,000 Lakes is also fielding a large Republican primary field of candidates, though if ex-NFL sideline reporter Michele Tafoya wins that election it could put the state in play for the party, the operative said.
