It’s been an unusual start to the 2026 season for the San Diego Padres, to put it mildly.
They started by going 2-5 in their first seven games, then 16-3 over their next 19 to sit at 18-8. Despite a litany of injuries, particularly in the starting rotation, they held on throughout most of May, even moving half a game up on the Los Angeles Dodgers in the National League West with a series-opening win over LA on May 18. As recently as May 23, they were 31-20 and half a game out of first place.
But the Dodgers have pulled away over the last two weeks. San Diego went 2-10, including losing six games in a row to the Nationals, Phillies and Mets. Meanwhile, LA went on a winning streak, building up an eight-game lead in the division. Oddly enough, even without key starters like Nick Pivetta and Joe Musgrove available, it hasn’t been the Padres’ pitching that’s hurt them. It’s their offense.
Per FanGraphs weighted runs created plus, a comprehensive statistic measuring total offensive output against league average, the Padres offense is tied for dead last in baseball. Incredibly, despite stars like Fernando Tatis Jr., Xander Bogaerts, Jackson Merrill and Manny Machado, the Padres offense has been 15% worse than league average. The first place Dodgers? 20% better.
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For some, that would be an indication that the Padres are underperforming their talent and unlikely to make a deep postseason run without more offense. For Manny Machado, it’s an indication that there are too many statistics in baseball.
Manny Machado of the San Diego Padres looks on during warmups before game three of the National League Wild Card Series against the Chicago Cubs at Wrigley Field in Chicago, Ill., on Oct. 2, 2025. (Michael Reaves/Getty Images)
After the loss to the Mets, where the Padres were shut out yet again, Machado spoke to reporters about the team’s offensive struggles. And blamed…numbers.
“The game’s evolving, man. It’s definitely getting harder to play. It’s definitely getting more strategic,” Machado said after the game. “I just wish we can get the analytics out of the way. I think there’s too many stats out there. Too many stats, way too many numbers. I don’t even know half of the stuff that goes up there. I look at the board sometimes, and I even ask some of the guys, like, ‘What is WCCVBB, whatever it is? What are these names that are being created?’
“I mean, it’s just crazy to even keep up with.”
It’s a reasonable perspective that keeping up with “analytics” can feel overwhelming. There are more numbers available to evaluate for fans, organizations and players than there’s ever been. But those same numbers have made the quality of play in baseball higher than it’s ever been. And ironically, the Padres might be the best example of how much validity there is to “analytics” as opposed to traditional statistics.
At first glance, it might look like Fernando Tatis Jr. is having a “good” season. He’s hitting .273, when the league-wide batting average is as low as it’s ever been. But “analytics” tell us that for a right fielder, his year has been disappointing. Because the bar for offense among outfielders is so high, Tatis has been a below-average hitter thus far. Batting average is nice, but a more comprehensive overview of offensive production is what closely correlates to runs scored. Which is, after all, what matters most.
San Diego Padres outfielder Fernando Tatis Jr. and third baseman Manny Machado watch the game in the third inning against the Los Angeles Dodgers during game two of the NLDS at Dodger Stadium in the 2024 MLB playoffs. (Jayne Kamin-Oncea/Imagn Images)
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San Diego has been the worst offense in the league, per “analytics.” They’ve also scored the fewest runs of any team in baseball. There’s a strong correlation between the advanced statistics and positive outcomes. And the Dodgers, the most successful team in the league, are as heavily invested in those “numbers” as any organization out there.
They’ve stayed around .500 through a combination of fortunate timing with offense late in games and having a nearly unhittable closer in Mason Miller. But even that highlights the importance of analytics.
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Evaluating pitchers is one of the biggest advantages of the modern game. Teams can see exactly how pitches move, exactly what type of pitches would best work with a player’s skill set. They can help shape pitches, help improve velocity or evaluate opposing hitters’ weaknessesor evaluate opposing hitters’ weaknesses. In that sense, Machado’s right that it’s getting “harder” and “more strategic” than before. Because of the analytics he doesn’t like.
San Diego Padres third baseman Manny Machado strikes out in the ninth inning against the Los Angeles Dodgers during game one of the NLDS at Dodger Stadium in 2024. (Kiyoshi Mio-Imagn Images)
“At the end of the day, it’s about competing,” he added, per The Athletic.
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“You got to go out there and compete and take away all those analytics, take everything you could possibly think of, and go out there and try to catch the ball and make more outs, right?”
Analytics give you a better chance of being competitive. Because they’re more illustrative of the underlying reason for outcomes, instead of the more simplistic, context-dependent statistics like individual runs batted in. No matter how Machado feels about the “analytics,” if his and his teammates’ numbers don’t improve, he’ll find out just how right they are while spending his October watching his competitors play postseason baseball.
