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A leading nonpartisan political handicapper shifted three Senate races toward the Democrats on Thursday and predicted that with just under five months to go until the midterm elections, the Democrats have a “clearer path to winning the Senate majority.”
But Sabato’s Crystal Ball at the Center for Politics at the University of Virginia adds that despite the shifts, “we still favor Republicans in the overall race for the Senate.”
Republicans currently control the Senate 53-47 but are battling stiff political headwinds, as the party in power in the nation’s capital traditionally loses seats in the midterms. The GOP also faces a rough political climate fueled by economic concerns amid persistent inflation, as well as rising gas prices tied to what polls show is an unpopular war with Iran and President Donald Trump’s underwater approval ratings.
THESE MIDTERM RACES WILL DETERMINE WHETHER REPUBLICANS HOLD THEIR SENATE MAJORITY
The Senate side of the U.S. Capitol is shown on Jan. 12, 2026. Republicans currently hold a 53-47 majority in the chamber. (Paul Steinhauser/)
Sabato’s Crystal Ball shifted the race in battleground North Carolina from toss-up to lean Democrat. Former two-term Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper is facing off against former Republican National Committee Chair Mike Whatley in the race to succeed retiring GOP Sen. Thom Tillis.
It moved the Senate showdown in Alaska, where GOP Sen. Dan Sullivan is expected to face off against former Democratic Rep. Mary Peltola, from lean Republican to toss-up.
And in Ohio, where appointed GOP Sen. Jon Husted is being challenged by former Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown, it shifted the rating from lean Republican to toss up.
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Republican Sen. Jon Husted and former longtime Sen. Sherrod Brown, a Democrat, will face off in a highly anticipated U.S. Senate race in Ohio in November. (Tom Williams/CQ-Roll Call, Inc via Getty Images ; Justin Merriman/Bloomberg via Getty Images)
The movement toward the Democrats in the Ohio race comes a week after a poll indicated Brown currently up by eight points, 53%-45%, over Husted.
Democrats need a net gain pickup of four seats in the midterms to win back control of the Senate they lost in the 2024 elections.
Pointing to the four races it now considers toss-ups, Sabato’s Crystal Ball said “there are now enough Toss-up races to give Democrats a clearer path to winning the Senate majority… But Republicans can block Democrats by winning just one of the Toss-ups, meaning that they’re still better-positioned to hold the majority.”
The ratings shift by Sabato’s Crystal Ball comes a month after another top nonpartisan political handicapper, the Cook Report, moved its rankings of four key Senate races in favor of the Democrats.
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GOP Sen. Tim Scott of South Carolina, the chair of the National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC), acknowledged in a Digital interview earlier this year that “there’s no doubt the climate has gotten more and more difficult.”
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But Scott emphasized he remains “incredibly optimistic, not only about holding the majority, but still expanding the majority.”
Scott’s rival and counterpart at the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee (DSCC), Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand of New York, is optimistic that Democrats can flip the chamber. Gillibrand told Digital earlier this year she sees “all the makings of a blue wave.”
