Somehow, some way, the Dodgers’ dynasty will inevitably end.
They don’t think it will be this October, of course, as they come off a 100-win regular season and embark on their historic pursuit of a World Series three-peat.
Around the sport, however, not everyone is so sure.
Ahead of the team’s National League Division Series against the Atlanta Braves this week, the California Post spoke to two rival National League scouts to break down the keys to the matchup and solicit predictions for the best-of-five showdown.
In a surprise, both tabbed the Braves to pull off an NLDS upset.
Ahead of Saturday’s series-opener, here’s why:
Father time
The Dodgers’ biggest battle this postseason might be less against the Braves, or the Brewers or Padres, or whoever emerges out of the American League side of MLB’s playoff bracket.
Instead, both scouts cited the team’s aging lineup, and the ample mileage that has come with their back-to-back championships the past two years, as perhaps their biggest impediment to winning it all again.
There is a benefit to the experience the Dodgers boast, of course, with Scout 1 noting that “in these series, I just think they draw from their experience and age … They grind out at-bats when they matter. That’s what makes them dangerous.”
However, there were times during the regular season when the Dodgers nonetheless seemed to be wearing down, slumping offensively for much of the second half of the campaign.
“It’s tough to bet against those guys because of the track record,” Scout 2 said. “But at some point, they’re just not going to be able to overcome the age.”
The Dodgers were at their worst in July and August, when they struggled to generate power (ranking 25th in home runs and 23rd in slugging percentage over that stretch) or attack fastballs (ranking 20th in batting average and 26th in slugging percentage against heaters in that same period).
And while September was better –– both in overall production (they ranked fourth in the majors in scoring and second in OPS) and their ability to get back on heaters (fourth in batting average and second in slugging percentage against the pitch) –– their final-month schedule included only six games against teams that ranked better than 20th in team ERA this year.
The Braves finished fifth in that category (3.63 team ERA), and limited the Dodgers to just 15 runs in six head-to-head matchups this season, going 5-1 in those games.
“The Dodgers have feasted for years on [when] you start walking guys and giving them free passes, that’s when they beat you … They lock in, those veteran guys, and that’s where they win,” Scout 1 said. “But the Braves play such great defense, they throw strikes and they’re just a really good team. That’s why I think they handled them pretty good this year.”
Deceptively deep lineup
The Dodgers’ star-studded pitching staff, of course, should have an advantage over Atlanta’s lineup.
The Dodgers ranked fourth in team ERA this season, while the Braves finished more toward the middle of the pack in most offensive categories (eighth in scoring, 10th in batting average, 16th in OPS).
However, when everything is clicking at the plate, the Braves can still be dangerous, possessing plenty of proven balance and depth up and down their batting order.
For example, All-Star infielders Austin Riley and Ozzie Albies had career-worst regular seasons (by OPS+) this year, but belted key home runs in the wild-card round off star Phillies closer Jhoan Duran and longtime Phillies ace Zack Wheeler, respectively.
Middle-of-the-order mainstays Matt Olson and Michael Harris II also had big moments in the team’s defeat of Philadelphia, with each of them also going deep in Game 3.
It hardly even mattered that former MVP Ronald Acuña Jr. and breakout star Drake Baldwin –– the Nos. 1 and 2 hitters in their order –– went a combined 3-for-22 in the series.
At their best, they can compensate with collective production.
“It’s not always the best guys that you need to come through,” Scout 1 said. “You need some of these other guys to overachieve a little.”
“They’ll be hoping they can chip away,” Scout 2 added. “Not necessarily wear the starters down. But the deeper lineup could allow them to get [the Dodgers starters’] pitch counts up a little bit, get them out of the game, and get into the bullpen earlier.”
Speaking of…
Thin margin for error
One thing neither scout was sold on was the Dodgers’ bullpen, despite the group’s improved form over the final two months of the season.
“That’s the biggest weakness they have,” Scout 1 said.
“That’s probably the toughest question of the whole team,” Scout 2 echoed.
Internally, the Dodgers feel bullish about the state of the group. Tanner Scott, Alex Vesia and Evan Phillips all looked sharp down the stretch (albeit, again, against mostly non-playoff teams). Edwin Díaz made a sudden late-season resurgence to re-cement his place as a high-leverage option. Edgardo Henriquez is expected to be available after finishing the regular season on the injured list with a back injury. And Roki Sasaki is returning to the same postseason relief role he excelled at last October.
Still, questions abound –– especially if their offense underwhelms and forces them to grind through a series of low-scoring games.
“In close games, offensively you love the Dodgers because of [their experience], but I still am not convinced of that bullpen,” Scout 1 said. “If I was the Dodgers, I don’t think they go into this thing going, ‘Hey, I love our club in a close game.’ I just don’t. I’m not buying it. And it doesn’t mean [their relievers] won’t do it, because the stuff says they can. Especially Scott. I can’t totally pinpoint it. But I know that’s a challenge for them.”
The Ohtani question
The biggest cloud hanging over the Dodgers, of course, is Ohtani’s health status.
He missed much of September with right arm and left knee problems. He looked good in his first two games back from the injured list, but then dreadful in the following three to close out the regular-season schedule.
The Dodgers have insisted that Ohtani is physically improved from where he was last month, and that his swing has looked better in simulated games during their bye-week workouts.
But still, there is serious skepticism about how impactful the now 32-year-old slugger can be in the playoffs.
“[September] was as bad as anybody’s ever seen him,” Scout 1 said. “He’d have [past cold] streaks where he’ll hunt and he’ll look bad on things and you think, ‘We can get him out with this.’ But he looked different when he was bad this year. It looked like he wasn’t 100%. And I don’t think it’s 100% 1790976934, whether it’s the knee or the arm or whatever.”
“He looked so great on the mound at the beginning of the year,” Scout 2 added. “But you have to wonder just at this point, with his age, did the effort at the beginning of the year come back to really bite him?”
The pitching caveat
The Dodgers did get one big advantage coming into this series.
While they enjoyed their bye week, and allowed their pitching staff to rest up, the Braves were forced to empty the tank on the mound in their three-game wild-card series –– most notably by starting staff ace Chris Sale in Game 1 and using him out of the bullpen to close out Game 3.
Sale’s wild-card round start was already going to rule him out of pitching Game 1 in the NLDS. But after Thursday’s relief appearance, his availability for Game 2 is suddenly in doubt as well. If he can’t go until Game 3, that would rule out the possibility of him being able to start a potential winner-take-all Game 5.
Given Sale’s importance to the Braves’ pitching staff –– and his complete-game shutout against the Dodgers in August –– that factor gave Scout 2 serious pause about his Braves’ prediction:
“If Sale doesn’t start Sunday, that changes a part of my feeling.”
Still, Scout 2 stuck with a Braves upset, while predicting the series going the full five games.
Scout 1 did the same, somewhat reluctantly, as well.
“I think this one goes five, and it’s going to come down to the bullpen,” he said. “Do I have to pick a winner? Atlanta in five. I like Atlanta.”
