It feels like only yesterday Purdue was the No. 1 team in the AP’s preseason rankings.
Here in March, they kick off the Round of 64 as the West’s No. 2 seed with plenty to prove in a tournament that is widely believed to be Arizona, Duke or Michigan’s to lose.
That quest begins against No. 15 Queens University of Charlotte, N.C. — a program that cracked the NCAA Tournament in its inaugural season with Division I status.
That’s about as much of a success story as the Royals could have asked for this year, entering Friday’s game as 25.5-point underdogs.
That’s a bet that 63 percent of BetMGM bettors are taking at the time of this writing.
Queens is a fun offense that is one of the tournament’s extreme, high-variance teams. They chuck a heavy volume of 3s, firing 28-plus from beyond the arc per game while rostering six players averaging in the double figures.
Queens vs. Purdue prediction, odds
The Boilermakers stack up against them as one of the nation’s most formidable offensive teams, capping their campaign as KenPom’s No. 2 overall offense and ranking within the top 25 in 2-point and 3-point shooting rate, offensive rebounds, and turnover rate.
Purdue’s biggest edge over Queens is in the paint.
Trey Kaufman-Renn and Oscar Cluff just averaged 32.6 points and 16.5 rebounds collectively in the Big Ten Tournament. I’m hard-pressed to name anyone on this Queens roster who can match either of these guys’ production down low.
Then there’s the defensive breakdowns against high-major teams.
Queens allowed 94 points to both Villanova and Virginia, respectively. That pertains to why they are the worst team in the tournament in KenPom’s Defensive Rating, ranking 319th overall.
Purdue doesn’t get to the line much, but the Royals also rank in the bottom 10 nationally in fouls, committing 19.9 per game while offering their opponents 23.7 free-throw attempts.
Betting on College Basketball?
Queens only path to staying in this is if its 3-point volume converts. If they go cold, however, Purdue can dominate them in rebounding, with a top-25 rank in Torvik’s defensive rebounding ratings. Purdue really just needs average perimeter defense, and we could see the margin balloon.
It was only three years ago that Purdue was upset by Fairleigh Dickinson in the first round as a No. 1 seed.
Two years ago, they fell to Connecticut in the national championship game, so experience and motivation make these points comfortable to lay.
THE PLAY: Purdue -25.5 (-110, BetMGM)
Why Trust New York Post Betting
Sean Treppedi handicaps the NFL, NHL, MLB and college football for the New York Post. He primarily focuses on picks that reflect market value while tracking trends to mitigate risk.
