Arizona’s 21-point dismantling of Arkansas in the Sweet 16 was a pretty good reminder as to why 20.9 percent of ESPN brackets tabbed the Wildcats to win it all.
This team just shot a whopping 64 percent from the field, 63 percent from 3 and six players crossed into double figures.
Arkansas broke down at the point of attack all night and failed to rotate effectively, which led to high-percentage looks at the rim and wide-open kick-out 3s.
Now comes Purdue, whose ticket to the Elite Eight came by way of a tip-in at the buzzer to beat Texas, 79-77.
All five starting Boilermakers also hit double digits, but they only shot 20 percent from beyond the arc and there was some clear second-half stagnation.
So, Arizona played toward its offensive ceiling, and Purdue played well below its shooting baseline and still won. Neither of these performances are sustainable, so Saturday, I’m looking for the follow-up to move toward the equilibrium.
Let’s start with the obvious narrative: the Wildcats will attack the paint against a defense that just coughed up nearly 1.27 points per possession to Texas.
Purdue also finished 14th in two-point defense in the Big Ten, which aligns comfortably with Arizona’s identity — rim pressure, offensive rebounding and a boatload of free throws.
On the other hand, the Boilermakers were the Big Ten’s second overall rank in defensive rebounding percentage.
Purdue vs. Arizona prediction, best bet
The Wildcats have covered the spread in all three tournament games so far, so if you’re going to contend with them, you’re gonna need to control shot quality and force them into a jump-shooting game, which Purdue is equipped to do.
I’m looking at two structural counters embedded in this matchup.
First: shot distribution.
Arizona allows fewer than 29 percent of opponent shot attempts at the rim, forcing a jump-shot profile.
Over 40 percent of the Boilermakers’ attempts come from 3, and it supplements that with heavy mid-range usage — precisely where Arizona is more willing to concede looks. This reduces the influence of Arizona’s defensive strength in the paint and shifts the game toward perimeter shot-making variance.
Second: offensive efficiency balance.
Purdue enters as a top-15 3-point shooting team and a top-20 offense on 2s, while Arizona — despite the Arkansas outlier — shoots two percent worse from 3 and roughly three percent worse from two-point range over the full season sample.
The Boilermakers’ experienced core of Braden Smith, Trey Kaufman-Renn, Fletcher Loyer and Oscar Cluff is battle-tested in high-pressure situations, evidenced by winning three of four games as an underdog this season.
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The cerebral playmaking of Braden Smith, the NCAA’s all-time assist leader, has afforded Loyer a bounty of looks: He has hit four 3s in each of Purdue’s three tournament games so far. The school record-holder for 3-point shooting and March Madness wins is sinking 43.5 percent of his shots from deep.
That’s all, while the 6-foot-11 Cluff and 6-foot-9 Kaufman-Renn can keep the Wildcats honest inside; they both ranked within the Big Ten’s top-five players in offensive and defensive rebounding, respectively.
This is a matchup that could stretch Arizona’s defense in ways it hasn’t seen all tournament, and 6.5 points feels generous.
THE PLAY: Purdue +6.5 (-110, Caesars)
Why Trust New York Post Betting
Sean Treppedi handicaps the NFL, NHL, MLB and college football for the New York Post. He primarily focuses on picks that reflect market value while tracking trends to mitigate risk.
