If his time at USC were a movie, “Lincoln Riley: The Trojan Odyssey” would need a massive plot twist.
So far, what we’ve seen fits the same predictable, disappointing mold.
A promising start to every season. A setback that threatened to derail the journey. A brief recovery.
Then, a loss that ended any College Football Playoff hopes.
In 2022, it was Utah in the Pac-12 title game.
In 2023, it was Washington at home.
In 2024, it was Penn State in overtime.
Last season, it was Oregon on the road.
What will happen in 2026 to Riley, the protagonist under siege? Here’s a game-by-game prediction:
San Jose State, Aug. 29
Spartans coach Ken Niumatalolo was an adviser to the UCLA staff that engineered a big upset of the Trojans in 2023 at the Coliseum, but that was with Power Four players.
While there’s a dollop of talent on this team, including wide receiver Malachi Riley, there’s also mass turnover on defense. Prediction: Win, 1-0.
Fresno State, Sept. 4
The Bulldogs usually play the Trojans tough — remember that 50-42 classic in 2005? — though there’s little reason to believe that will be the case this season.
Every quarterback on the roster is inexperienced, meaning this is a team that will likely rely heavily on the run. A veteran defense should be Fresno State’s strength, but an operation that proclaims “Anybody, Anytime, Anywhere” is going to be overmatched by USC in the season’s early going at the Coliseum. Prediction: Win, 2-0.
Louisiana, Sept. 12
In a time of constant upheaval, the Ragin’ Cajuns have not only held onto one of the best nicknames in sports but also remained in the Sun Belt Conference for a quarter of a century. That’s something.
Quarterback Lunch Winfield, who is also a gifted runner, can make plays when seemingly nothing is there for the taking. But a defense that’s almost entirely new might seem out to lunch, and let’s face it, the talent gap is just too great. Prediction: Win, 3-0.
at Rutgers, Sept. 19
Greg Schiano expressed extreme confidence in his team at Big Ten media day, though he may be a better salesman than coach.
The Scarlet Knights have some talent in wide receiver KJ Duff and running back Antwan Raymond, but they’ll be breaking in a new quarterback and a largely reformulated offensive line. Prediction: Win, 4-0.
Oregon, Sept. 26
While Riley is 0-2 against the Ducks since arriving at USC, both of those losses came on the road.
Quarterback Dante Moore’s return will make a breakthrough tough — no matter the venue — but these Trojans have the offensive might to trade touchdowns and prevail in a high-scoring battle. Prediction: Win, 5-0.
Washington, Oct. 3
The troubling reality for the Huskies is that quarterback Demond Williams Jr. won’t have nearly the same star power around him on offense that he did a year ago.
The defense features some high-end transfers and solid returners, making it the team’s better half. Coach Jedd Fisch has been a thorn in the Trojans’ side recently, but even his famed trickery won’t be enough. Prediction: Win, 6-0.
at Penn State, Oct. 10
The Nittany Lions replaced James Franklin with a coach who could be considered a clone in some respects — Matt Campbell always produced good seasons at Iowa State while never winning the big game.
His first Penn State team will feature a handful of proven Cyclones transfers, including veteran quarterback Rocco Becht. But the Trojans will show they don’t miss D’Anton Lynn, their onetime defensive coordinator who bolted in December for the same job at his alma mater. Prediction: Win, 7-0.
at Wisconsin, Oct. 24
Luke Fickell has been a flop with the Badgers after taking Cincinnati to the CFP.
They stuck with him despite a 17-21 record, hoping he can finally lead them to something better than the ReliaQuest Bowl. The arrival of quarterback Colton Joseph, a former Sun Belt Offensive Player of the Year at Old Dominion, provides some hope, but this doesn’t have the feel of a team capable of upsetting the Trojans. Prediction: Win, 8-0.
Ohio State, Oct. 31
Quarterback Julian Sayin is so efficient that you’re almost surprised when one of his passes falls incomplete.
If there are questions about these Buckeyes, they will come on defense given the mass departures for the NFL. But talent is never an issue under coach Ryan Day. Here’s predicting that his team becomes USC’s first stumbling block of 2026. Prediction: Loss, 8-1.
at Indiana, Nov. 14
It still seems weird to consider the Hoosiers a national power given their first 136 years of football. But a program that had previously never posted a 10-win season really did just log back-to-back appearances in the CFP, including a national title.
Coach Curt Cignetti now needs to show he can sustain the wild success, and a lot of that will depend on quarterback Josh Hoover, a transfer from TCU. Here’s betting that the Hoosiers have just enough to prevail in this showdown. Prediction: Loss, 8-2.
Maryland, Nov. 21
Remember that heady win the Terrapins logged at home against USC in October 2024, their final victory of an otherwise miserable season?
The Trojans haven’t forgotten it, either, and will deliver some massive payback. Prediction: Win, 9-2.
at UCLA, Nov. 28
Entering this game with two losses means that Riley’s CFP hopes will hinge on a road game against a rival, never a sure thing.
Sure, the Trojans have more talent, but the Bruins will be doubly motivated under new coach Bob Chesney. On the 20-year anniversary of Eric McNeal’s game-sealing interception during an epic upset of the second-ranked Trojans, UCLA pulls another stunner. Prediction: Loss, 9-3.
Holiday Bowl vs. Clemson, date TBA
With UCLA’s upset vaulting it into the Alamo Bowl, the Trojans head to San Diego for what could be Riley’s final game in a battle of coaches on the hottest of seats.
USC wins the battle of attrition against Dabo Swinney’s team as half of each roster opts out, putting athletics director Jennifer Cohen on the clock to decide her coach’s future. Prediction: Win, 10-3.
