There’s a reason why folks love betting on the NFL Draft. It’s all about being first to information.
And it seems like somebody at Polymarket believes they got the scoop on where Ty Simpson will land at next week’s party in Pittsburgh. And it’s come out of nowhere.
Polymarket, one of the world’s leading prediction markets, gives the Dallas Cowboys a 65-percent chance to select the Alabama quarterback, making “America’s Team” the favorite ahead of the Seahawks (54 percent), Buccaneers (39 percent), Cardinals (23 percent), and Patriots (23 percent).
That number is way off the market compared to traditional bookmakers. At bet365 Sportsbook, Simpson is 75/1 to be drafted by Dallas. DraftKings has it at 50/1. So does BetMGM Sportsbook. The longest price is at FanDuel, where Simpson to the Cowboys is all the way down at 125/1.
Kalshi, another flagship prediction market, has Dallas at 13 percent to pick Simpson, but it should be noted that only $76,500 has been traded on the former Crimson Tide’s landing spot at Kalshi.
Polymarket has seen over $255,000 come in on it.
The Cowboys own two first-round picks: No. 12 and No. 20, the latter of which is on the fringes of the range for when Simpson is expected to be considered. Simpson’s Over/Under is 24.5, with heavy juice (-280) on the over.
Adding to the intrigue is the fact that the Arizona Cardinals are the favorite to select Simpson at just about every shop, except for Polymarket.
And they’re not a lukewarm price, either.
Kalshi gives Arizona a 43-percent chance of landing the 23-year-old. Meanwhile, BetMGM Sportsbook has Arizona approaching odds-on territory at +105, and the Cards are not that far behind with other bookmakers.
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The short price seems like a head-scratcher because the Cardinals have one pick in Round 1, and it’s No. 3 overall. According to just about every mock draft, it would be an obscene reach for the Cards to use that selection on Simpson, so speculators are either banking on Arizona moving back into the first round or on Simpson falling to Arizona at No. 34.
Last week, The Post highlighted that Simpson’s odds were all over the place and that the market was sending mixed signals on where he would land, and it seems like we’re just getting started.
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Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.
