Pollster Nate Silver predicts AOC will be next Democratic presidential nominee

FiveThirtyEight founder and prominent pollster Nate Silver has a bold take: Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, D-N.Y., is most likely the next Democratic presidential candidate.

In a video posted to his “Silver Bulletin” website on Wednesday, Silver and political podcaster Galen Druke came up with draft picks for the Democratic Party’s next presidential nominee and settled on AOC being the strongest contender.

“My first pick of the first-round draft is Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez,” Druke said. 

“F— you! That was going to be my f—— first pick!,” Silver responded, adding, “We both are on the AOC bus.” Earlier, he said his first pick likely had at best a “20% chance” to be the nominee, indicating it was far from a confident prediction.

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Druke went on to argue why the progressive lawmaker was his top choice, stating there are “a lot of points in her favor at this very moment,” pointing in part to having the highest net favorability of any Democrats asked about in a recent Yale survey.

“So that means that Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez has broad appeal across the Democratic Party and there’s a lot of people who could potentially get on board with her. But I think equally important is the fact that she has very fervent support,” he said.

Ocasio-Cortez and Sen. Bernie Sanders, I-Vt., have drawn large crowds and plenty of press attention during their “Fight Oligarchy” tour in recent weeks.

Druke said “The Squad” member would do well grabbing attention in what he expects to be a crowded primary. 

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Sen. Bernie Sanders, I-Vt., right, and Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, D-N.Y., acknowledge the cheering crowd during a “Fighting Oligarchy” event in Los Angeles, Saturday, April 12, 2025.(AP Photo/Jae C. Hong) (AP Photo/Jae C. Hong)

“Like, the media is kind of obsessed with her, and they’re going to follow her every move, which means she will be able to keep the attention on her throughout the primary process,” he said.

“I agree with everything,” Silver said. “She was going to be my first pick, and I can’t conceal that now, right? Because of some of the polling, because she has this kind of progressive lane – probably not to herself, because she is younger and media savvy.”

He referenced Ocasio-Cortez’s strength against party leaders like Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., – more evidence that she will be the one to beat in 2028.

“I mean, look, in polls, if she were to run – try to primary Chuck Schumer, she is now ahead in those polls and New York Democrats are actually a pretty moderate lot,” he said.

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Ocasio-Cortez further cemented herself as one of the Democratic Party’s most prominent voices in March when she criticized Schumer for supporting the House-passed funding measure to avoid a government shutdown.

Silver expressed some caveats over his pick, wondering if she’s too young to even consider running for president at this point. Ocasio-Cortez will turn 39 in 2028, and it remains to be seen if she runs for a higher office in New York like governor or U.S. Senate in the interim. 

“She’s very young. I don’t know that she’s sure to run,” he said, adding, “And I also think you’re going to have a lot of concerns about ‘electability.’”

Her reps did not immediately reply to Digital’s request for comment.

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