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Disapproval of President Donald Trump’s handling of Iran hit a record high in July, as a majority of voters oppose U.S. military action, and nearly two thirds think the conflict will last at least a year.
The latest survey finds 56% oppose U.S. military action against Iran, including 40% who “strongly” oppose. More Democrats oppose the war (84%) than Republicans support it (76%).
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Voters increasingly expect a long-term commitment. Today, 64% think the war will last a year or more, up 13 percentage points since May. Expectations vary sharply depending on attitudes toward the Iran war. Among supporters, 56% think it will be over in weeks or months, while 80% of opponents expect it to last at least a year.
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There is also doubt the conflict will produce an agreement. About half think the U.S. will not reach a deal with Iran, while the rest split between expecting a good deal (27%) and a bad one (25%).
Roughly half of Democrats, Republicans, and independents predict there will be no agreement with the Islamic Republic. Among those anticipating a deal, Democrats are 20 points more likely to expect a bad one, while Republicans are 27 points more likely to expect a good one.
Just 34% of voters approve of Trump’s handling of Iran, while 66% disapprove, his worst marks to date.
Trump’s overall standing remains steady, but underwater. Thirty-nine percent approve of his job performance, unchanged for the past three months. Sixty-one percent disapprove, tying a previous high. That includes 49% who “strongly” disapprove, matching a record high.
For historical context, Trump’s best rating, 49% approve and 49% disapprove, came in April 2020. His current 39% approval is close to former President Joe Biden’s 40% (July 2022) and former President Barack Obama’s 42% (July 2014), during the summer of a midterm election year.
Trump continues to receive some of his strongest support from MAGA Republicans (97% approve) and conservatives (72%). But compared to June, his approval has declined to a near record low among rural voters (down 7 points to 44%) and an all-time low among White voters (down 3 points to 41%).
Yet the largest change comes among non-MAGA Republicans. Their support has fallen 13 points since last month to 51% approval, after hitting 70% at the beginning of Trump’s second term.
Trump’s ratings are also underwater on the economy (33% approve, 67% disapprove) and inflation (27-73%).
Republicans lose advantage on immigration
Voters are now divided over which party can better handle immigration: 50% say the Democrats and 49% the Republicans, a meaningful shift since April, when the GOP held an 8-point advantage. Women and voters under age 45 prefer the Democrats on immigration, while men and those ages 45 and older favor the Republicans.
“During the Biden administration years, immigration attitudes were often defined by border security considerations,” says Republican pollster Daron Shaw, who works on the Poll with Democratic counterpart Chris Anderson. “Today, immigration enforcement and ICE often dominate, eroding the GOP’s edge on the issue.”
Immigration remains Trump’s best performing issue in the survey, but his rating is still negative: 42% approve, while 57% disapprove.
Views of Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) follow a similar pattern. ICE approval stands at 41%, unchanged since early this year but down from 49% last September.
Majorities of Democrats (90%) and independents (68%) disapprove of ICE, while most Republicans approve (79%). Fully 78% of Democrats, and 50% of independents “strongly” disapprove, compared with 53% of Republicans who “strongly” approve.
Few voters support allowing all illegal immigrants to remain in the U.S. Just 7% take that position, including 11% of Democrats, 5% of independents, and 2% of Republicans.
Instead, 62% favor deporting those who have been charged with crimes while allowing others to stay and eventually qualify for citizenship. That position draws majority support from every demographic group except Republicans (39%), conservatives (41%), and White evangelical Christians (48%).
Thirty-one percent favor deporting all illegal immigrants, with support highest among MAGA Republicans at 68%.
When asked about their concerns about illegal immigration, voters are most worried about the strain on government services (39%). Smaller shares cite crime (19%), job losses for U.S. citizens (14%), changes to the country’s culture (13%), and terrorism (10%).
Overburdened government programs rank as the top concern across demographic groups. College graduates, those living in high income households, suburban voters and independents are among those most likely to cite it.
The immigration findings also reveal a consistent divide within the Republican Party. ICE approval is 91% among MAGA Republicans compared with 59% among other Republicans, one of the widest gaps in the survey.
A similar split appears in ratings of Trump’s handling of immigration, with 91% of MAGA Republicans approving compared with 63% of other Republicans. MAGA Republicans are also nearly 30 points more likely to favor deporting all illegal immigrants (68% vs. 41%).
Conducted July 17–20, 2026, under the direction of Beacon Research (D) and Shaw & Company Research (R), this survey includes interviews with a sample of 1,003 registered voters randomly selected from a national voter file. Respondents spoke with live interviewers on landlines (70) and cellphones (681) or completed the survey online after receiving a text (252). Results based on the full sample have a margin of sampling error of ±3 percentage points. The survey includes an oversample of 200 voters aged 18–29, bringing the sample size for that subgroup to 350 (±5). Sampling error for results among subgroups is higher. In addition to sampling errors, question wording and order can influence results. Weights are generally applied to age, race, education, and area variables to ensure the demographics are representative of the registered voter population. Sources for developing weight targets include the most recent American Community Survey, Voter Analysis, and voter file data.
’ Victoria Balara contributed to this report.
