We started the second half of the MLB season with exactly what I wanted — a win. I didn’t take the full game, instead opting for the first five innings moneyline. I was able to cash that ticket with a sweaty 1-0 victory. The final score of 4-1 would’ve made the full game a bit easier to tolerate, but I’ll take the win. Hopefully, this play between the Padres and Royals won’t be quite as much of a nailbiter.
The San Diego Padres are doing what they seem to do every season. They are a .500 club, but are filled with talented players on their roster. I’ve mentioned previously that they might be the most frustrating team in baseball. They try to take big swings to make their team better, they aren’t afraid to make trades, and they invest in the club. The reward so far has been mostly lost playoff series and nothing exciting in the regular season. The team is hitting just .226 for the year (dead last in the league) and has 379 runs scored (also the very worst in the league).
San Diego Padres starting pitcher Michael King throws a pitch during the first inning against the Arizona Diamondbacks at Petco Park in San Diego, Calif. (David Frerker/Imagn Images)
Their pitching hasn’t been much better, but still certainly better than their offense. The team ERA is 4.23, which is 17th in the league. The collective WHIP comes out to 1.34, which is 20th. Their starter today is Michael King, one of their better arms in the rotation. King is 6-7 for the season with a 3.41 ERA and a 1.15 WHIP. He has been slightly worse on the road than at home based on ERA, but he also has allowed three fewer earned runs in almost 20 fewer innings on the road. That’s showing that he really is not pitching all that well on the road. He is coming off of two really nice quality starts against the Dodgers and the Diamondbacks. Royals hitters are batting just .194 against him over 31 at-bats.
The Kansas City Royals are similar to the Padres in that they are one of the more frustrating teams in the game. This was a great opportunity for them to take the division. The Twins and White Sox were supposed to be in down years. The Tigers didn’t do much to improve their hitting. The Guardians are seemingly always competitive. The Royals were supposed to take a bit of a step forward, but that hasn’t happened. They are 21 games under .500 and probably will look to trade away players, looking forward to next season.
Kansas City Royals starting pitcher Seth Lugo throws a pitch in the second inning against the St. Louis Cardinals at Kauffman Stadium in Kansas City, Mo. (Peter Aiken/Imagn Images)
One guy that might get some trade consideration is today’s starter, Seth Lugo. This is probably the worst year that Lugo has had in his career with the Royals. He is just 3-6 with a 4.56 ERA and a 1.43 WHIP. However, his work over the past few years makes me think that some people will take a shot on him. He has been better at home, throwing to a 3.83 ERA. He has struggled quite a bit over the past two months, going 33.2 innings and allowing 25 earned runs. He had allowed only 28 earned runs before June started. Padres hitters are batting .255 against him, but no one really stands out aside from maybe Miguel Andujar.
There isn’t much of a spot here for a player prop in my opinion. I do think both pitchers should be able to navigate their opponent’s lineup. The Padres aren’t hitting the ball well, and the Royals aren’t exactly a scary team to face, either. I don’t have a great feel for which team will win this game, I can make a decent case for both.
Kansas City Royals pitcher Seth Lugo throws during the first inning against the Baltimore Orioles at Oriole Park at Camden Yards in Baltimore, Md. (Daniel Kucin Jr./Imagn Images)
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Instead of taking on the side, I’m going to take on the total. The Padres are last in runs scored, and the Royals are 20th. It isn’t like these offenses are great. Both pitchers are in decent situations for their splits. Give me the under 10.5, I think the line on this game is about two runs too high. I’ll bet multiple units on this one.
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