A Democratic strategist is predicting a Republican “wipeout” in the 2026 midterms — and pointing to Texas Gov. Greg Abbott’s surprisingly tight Texas reelection race as proof.
Veteran Democratic strategist Paul Begala said Sunday that Abbott’s numbers against Democrat Gina Hinojosa could signal a much broader Democratic surge in November.
“This is not going to be a win,” the architect of Bill Clinton’s 1992 win said on CNN’s “State of the Union.”
“And it’s not going to be a wave. It’s going to be a wipeout.”
The Texas contest has tightened considerably — with the Republican stalwart’s polls falling from a 7-point lead to just 1.8 point in the RealClearPolitics average.
Abbott, who is seeking an unprecedented fourth term, is still the odd-on favorite to win, but he clinched reelection in 2022 by nearly 11 percentage points.
Republican strategist Ashley Davis pushed back on Begala’s predictions, arguing that a Democratic Senate takeover is not inevitable, and that the Republicans are unlikely to suffer the kind of historic House collapse Democrats experienced in 2010.
“Is this an election against Trump? Yes.” Davis said. “Do I think we’re going to lose the Senate right now? Probably not.”
Additionally, the Dem party is much less popular now than it was during previous wave elections. In 2018, the generic Democrat v. Republican polling had Dems up by 12 points. Now, it’s just 5 points.
Still, Abbott’s race against state Rep. Hinojosa is drawing national attention — and Abbot is no ordinary incumbent.
The 68-year-old Republican has been Texas governor since 2015. Before becoming governor, he served as the Texas attorney general and on the Texas Supreme Court.
A fourth full term would eventually make him the longest-serving governor in Texas history.
His campaign reported more than $67 million in cash on hand as of June 30 and said it raised more than $28 million during the first half of 2026. Other campaign-finance puts his war chest above $100 million in later filings.
However, his job approval rating has plummeted 3% over the past four years, according to the Texas Politics Project — giving Hinojosa plenty of room to attack.
Hinojosa, a 52-year-old lawyer from Austin, has sought to make the race about the cost of living, public schools, energy and the influence of large corporations. She’s argued that Texans are ready for a change after more than a decade of Abbott’s leadership.
Begala argued that Abbott’s position below 50% in some polls is particularly ominous for an incumbent.
“When strategists read polls, they say where’s the incumbent?” Begala said. “And if the incumbent’s below 50, he’s in big trouble.”
Begala also credited Hinojosa and fellow Dem state Rep. James Talarico — who is running in the much higher profile Senate race — with energizing voters who have become disillusioned with President Trump.
“We have a very vulnerable country, and Gina is, I think, running a great campaign along with James Talarico in energizing all these voters who have been so turned off by Trump,” he added.
