Our first ‘Ugly Underdog‘ of the season cashed with ease.
Florida State never seemed interested in putting New Mexico State away in Week 0, which made it a pretty sweat-free night for those of us holding a ticket on Aggies +31.5. Not sure what that says about the Seminoles, but that’s a conversation for a different column.
Today is about Northern Illinois, perhaps the most in-flux program in FBS.
For the second time in its history, Northern Illinois has bolted from the MAC for the bright lights of a conference based out West.
From 1993 to 1995, NIU competed in the ill-fated Big West Conference, and 21 years later it has joined the new-look Mountain West, which had to work quickly to replace the five schools, including Boise State, that departed for the back-from-the-dead Pac-12.
The Huskies were one of the headliners in the MAC with five conference titles and seven trips to the championship game since 2011, but they’ll have their work cut out for them in the Mountain West. Only UTEP (110/1) has longer odds than NIU (80/1) to lift the trophy.
It will be a challenging season for the Huskies as they get their paws wet in their new environs, especially since long-time head coach Thomas Hammock left his post in February to become the running backs coach with the Seattle Seahawks.
The school replaced Hammock with defensive coordinator Rob Harley, who still has the interim tag and has no head coaching experience.
Harley’s first opponent just happens to be the longest-tenured coach in FBS, Iowa’s Kirk Ferentz.
We may have no idea what to expect from Northern Illinois, but college football fans can set their watch to Ferentz’s Iowa Hawkeyes.
Now in his 28th season in Iowa City, Ferentz’s teams haven’t changed much. You can feel confident that the defense will be good, the special teams will be sharp, and the offense, well, the less said about that, the better.
However, we could actually see something a little different in 2026, at least out of the gate. Eventually, Phil Parker (who has been on Ferentz’s staff since 1999) will have his defense in lockstep, but it could take some time to get there, as Iowa needs to replace about a dozen key contributors on the defensive side of the ball.
Seventeen defenders played at least 200 snaps for Parker in 2025, and only six of them are back. The secondary, which is always a strength in Iowa City, lost both starting safeties and its best cornerback. Parker is a machine, but this could be his toughest gig yet.
Catch up on The Post’s college football betting predictions and previews for the 2026 season
The reason the Iowa formula works is that the defense sets the tone so the offense doesn’t have to. If the Hawkeyes hold their opponents to 14 points, then the offense can grind its way to 15.
But if the defense slips even a little, it will be up to the offense to make up the ground. Last year’s attack was an improvement for the Hawkeyes, but the quarterback position remains in flux, and that will likely mean that Ferentz will want to see his team do what it does best when they have the ball: Keep things safe and keep the clock moving.
That isn’t a recipe that will inspire much confidence when you’re asking a team to cover a 31.5-point spread.
Take the 31.5 points with the Huskies and hope that they can catch Iowa’s defense out of sync enough times to get us to the window.
The Play: Northern Illinois +31.5 (-105, DraftKings)
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Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.
