We’re one-third of the way through the NHL season, and the playoff picture is a logjam.
Every point makes all the difference right now as teams shuffle back and forth over the threshold. With this constant fluctuation, the betting market is vacillating.
It’s still early enough for underperforming teams to leapfrog in and for overperforming teams to tumble — and the prices on playoff futures reflect that.
Like any futures market, investments on making or missing the playoffs offer its best returns before the season. But December marks an opportune checkpoint: There’s been enough of a sample size on record to make an appraisal and spot some value as things remain congested.
The last time a team won back-to-back Stanley Cups and then missed the playoffs was the 1969-70 Montreal Canadiens.
At the time of this writing, Florida is third-to-last in the Eastern Conference and five points out of the dance.
There’s somewhat of a hangover effect in Sunrise, though we can attribute the Panthers’ lethargic start to injury misfortunes. Matthew Tkachuk’s pending return could certainly provide stimulus, but with no Aleksander Barkov for the season, the Panthers are missing the core of their winning culture in the game’s most effective two-way forward and a foundational leader.
A greater concern is regression in Sergei Bobrovsky’s game. The two-time Vezina winner hasn’t come up with enough big saves, stopping only 73 percent of high-danger shots and dropping to -3 in Goals Saved Above Expected per Money Puck.
Discombobulation and bad luck can cause fluke seasons for good teams. The Panthers’ reputation and potential are keeping them at plus-money to miss the playoffs right now.
Betting on the NHL?
Bruins to Make Playoffs (+270, FanDuel Sportsbook)
You couldn’t help but grimace at the Bruins by the end of last season.
After a trade deadline that left the B’s with a ragbag of miscellaneous pieces and a season-ending blow to Charlie McAvoy in the Four Nations Face-Off, it was a bleak outlook in Beantown.
A flip of the switch and they’re back to jockeying for the lead in the Atlantic Division, signaling the best value to make the playoffs.
Aside from new contributions from hockey’s second-leading goalscorer, Morgan Geekie, the Bruins have excellent special teams, ranking within the top 10 on the power play and penalty kill. You could argue there’s too much reliance on that as the Bruins don’t project thriving 5-on-5 metrics, but with Jeremy Swayman No. 3 overall in GSAx, anything is possible.
David Pastrnak scored three points in his first game back from a 10-day injury and there’s enough reason to believe the B’s aren’t that far removed from eight straight playoff appearances.
Devils to Miss Playoffs (+170, FanDuel Sportsbook)
No matter the talents of Jack Hughes, the Devils have always been smoke and mirrors to me. That usually reveals itself in the playoffs, but that’s not a given every year — especially with Hughes out until the New Year.
Since Hughes’ injury, the Devils are 5-8. Goaltending instability continues to hamper them as Jakob Markstrom has produced unsavory numbers in a timeshare with Jake Allen.
Offensively, the Devils are -6 in goal differential and rank No. 24 in expected goal rate at 5-on-5.
With a lack of bottom-six presence, there’s no defining identity to the Devils aside from the stardom of Hughes, which offers value on fading them this early.
Why Trust New York Post Betting
Sean Treppedi handicaps the NFL, NHL, MLB and college football for the New York Post. He primarily focuses on picks that reflect market value while tracking trends to mitigate risk.
