A massive wave of warm water is making its way across the Pacific Ocean as the newly declared El Niño gets into full swing, satellite images show.
The band, called a Kelvin wave, marks a swell of higher-than-average sea levels that stretches hundreds of miles along the equator. The anomaly is caused by warmer waters linked to El Niño — the warm phase of a natural climate pattern whose current iteration could become one of the strongest ever recorded.
The Sentinel-6 Michael Freilich satellite captured the deviations from average sea surface height on June 8. Red areas indicate higher sea surfaces than usual, while blue areas mark areas with lower surface heights.
Developed and launched in 2020 by NASA and the European Space Agency and operated by the European Organisation for the Exploitation of Meteorological Satellites (EUMETSAT), Sentinel-6 Michael Freilich measures changes in sea surface height down to fractions of an inch every 10 days.
The data complements measurements of sea surface temperature that have shown Pacific waters warming at unpreceded rates over the past several months, leading scientists to declare the start of a new El Niño on June 11. When ocean water warms, it expands and takes up more space. That translates to an increase in the height of the water relative to the satellite and the center of Earth, which is then picked up by the satellite’s sensitive equipment. At some points along the equator, sea surfaces are now more than 6 inches (15 centimeters) higher than usual.
Kelvin waves like this one form when winds in the western Pacific near the equator weaken and temporarily reverse, blowing from west to east instead of east to west. That lets warm water gradually build up in the east, deepening the layer of warm surface waters and preventing colder waters from rising from below. The wave has now reached the western coast of South America.
NASA had already observed a few other Kelvin waves this year, suggesting an El Niño event was soon to follow. In January, Sentinel-6 Michael Freilich detected one near Micronesia that dissipated around mid-February. Another emerged in March and elevated sea levels near Peru by mid-May.
Changes in sea surface temperature or height can alter atmospheric circulation patterns and affect the weather. El Niño often increases rainfall in the southwestern U.S., Colombia, Peru and Ecuador, while rainfall in the western Pacific tends to decrease. The most recent El Niño, which lasted from June 2023 to April 2024, boosted global mean temperatures that made 2024 the hottest year on record and the first to breach the 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit) warming limit — a guardrail set by the Paris Agreement beyond which the effects of climate change become more and more catastrophic.
The June 8 conditions in the western Pacific were similar to those that occurred 1997 during a particularly strong El Niño, according to a statement from NASA. 2026 has seen fewer Kelvin waves so far than 1997, but this year’s El Niño is still ramping up.
“For now, it looks like it’s going to be a big one — more so than I would have said last week — but we still need more observations to know what’s going to happen,” Severine Fournier, a sea level researcher at NASA’s Jet Propulsion Lab, said in the statement.
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