Two things are true about Miami.
It deserves to be the No. 1 team in the country, but it is also deserving of plenty of skepticism.
The Hurricanes have yet to lose a game this season, but two of their last three wins have been white-knucklers against poor opposition.
Florida State pushed Miami to double-overtime as a three-score underdog in Week 7, and then UNC, which was getting 14 points, kept its margin of defeat to just three points in Week 9.
Those results are not encouraging heading into a battle against Notre Dame, and the reports that Malachi Toney will miss the trip won’t help things either.
The Fighting Irish are 7.5-point home favorites over the Hurricanes on Saturday night.
Miami vs. Notre Dame odds, prediction
It’s pretty easy to see what is plaguing Miami lately.
The Canes still boast an elite offense that ranks No. 1 in SP+, No. 3 in yards per play and No. 1 in points per game, but the defense can’t be trusted, especially against competent opponents.
UNC gained 6.7 yards per play against Miami last week; Pitt, which was starting a backup quarterback, put up 6.6, and Florida State was better than both at 6.9
If those offenses are running rampant against this defense, imagine what CJ Carr and Notre Dame, the No. 2 unit in the country per SP+, will do.
Miami’s offense has been good enough to make all its defensive issues irrelevant by the time the final whistle sounds, but the loss of Toney severely limits the Hurricanes’ ceiling with the ball. The timing could hardly be worse, as Notre Dame is the best defense that Darian Mensah and Miami will see this season.
The Irish rank third overall in points allowed per game (13.4), first in yards allowed per game (236.3) and seventh in yards per play (4.2). The run defense has been extraordinary, limiting opponents to 85.4 yards per game (seventh overall) and 2.8 yards per carry (ninth).
Get the lowdown on the Best USA Sports Betting Sites and Apps
Notre Dame should be able to keep Miami’s running game at bay, which will force Mensah to beat the Irish on his own.
Notre Dame may have failed its only real test this year at BYU, but this matchup should suit the Fighting Irish, and they’re getting Miami when the Hurricanes are playing their worst football in the last two years.
The Play: Notre Dame -7.5 (-105, DraftKings)
Why Trust New York Post Betting
Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.
