Four years of waiting are over; the 2026 World Cup is about to commence.
Mexico, one of the co-hosts along with the United States and Canada, will take on South Africa in the tournament’s curtain-raiser at the iconic Estadio Azteca in Mexico City at 3 p.m. ET on Thursday.
This is a rematch of the 2010 World Cup opener, played in South Africa. Guillermo ‘Memo’ Ochoa was the starting goalkeeper for Mexico in that match. Sixteen years later, he is about to embark on his sixth World Cup in 2026.
El Tri are hefty -260 favorites to get off the blocks with a win at FanDuel Sportsbook.
Mexico vs. South Africa odds, prediction
Although El Tri has been the most successful team in CONCACAF during this cycle with two Gold Cups and a triumph at the 2024 CONCACAF Nations League, expectations are lukewarm for Mexico ahead of the World Cup.
Part of the tepid projections stems from Mexico’s tactical approach. Now in his third stint with the national team, Javier Aguirre leans on pragmatism more than pizzazz and will have his team set up not to concede goals rather than to create them.
In a big-picture sense, this tactical setup makes sense. It plays into Mexico’s strength — a sturdy defense — while providing some cover for an offense that lacks the game-breaking talent that the heavyweights in this tournament possess.
If they go up against the likes of France, Argentina, or Spain, Mexico will be tough to break down. But on the other hand, they’re not built to pick apart inferior opponents, such as South Africa.
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Bafana Bafana will come into their first World Cup since 2010 as a relative unknown, but they have a couple of important things going for them. Most importantly, they have a clear identity.
That identity shone through during qualifying, as South Africa was able to top their group ahead of Nigeria despite the fact that they had a win reversed due to a clerical error.
Because South Africa’s roster is made up mostly of players from their domestic league, there will be questions about the talent level, but Bafana Bafana can close the gap with its chemistry. Every player on this squad will know his role, and they’ll be anchored by the all-action Teboho Mokoena in the middle of the pitch. He has the capability to give Mexico fits.
Hugo Broos wants his team to dictate the tempo of matches with the ball at their feet, but it’s likely he’ll set them up more pragmatically and try to hit Mexico on the counter.
South Africa will come into this match as a decided underdog, and they’ll have to deal with a hostile crowd and the altitude at Estadio Azteca, but their defensive numbers during qualifying and the Africa Cup of Nations should give Mexico plenty to pause over. They won’t be easy to score against. And Mexico isn’t really built to break down well-organized teams. Under Aguirre, El Tri prefers the opposite role.
Mexico could very well ride the momentum of playing at home and just lean on its talent advantage, but the gap isn’t wide enough to feel comfortable laying this kind of wood, especially in the opening match of a World Cup.
South Africa will need plenty to go right to start this show with a win, but the +800 price on the upset is frankly absurd, especially since the favorites will be under heaps of pressure to perform in front of nearly 90,000 fans. Don’t be afraid to take a shot with Bafana Bafana on Thursday.
The Play: South Africa moneyline (+800, FanDuel)
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Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.
