A 24-year-old AI wunderkind dubbed the “Nostradamus of AI” has become Wall Street’s newest obsession after growing his hedge fund into a more than $20 billion powerhouse in less than two years.
Leopold Aschenbrenner, a former OpenAI researcher with no professional investing experience, launched Situational Awareness in 2024 with a few hundred million dollars — and has since ridden a series of blockbuster AI bets to eye-popping returns.
The Germany-born investor has become a cult figure among traders and tech executives, with fans poring over his regulatory filings for clues about his next move and even copying his trades through investing apps, according to the Wall Street Journal.
The hype has been matched by staggering gains.
Situational Awareness has gained about 270% after fees this year through May and is up more than 1,000% since inception, according to the Journal, putting Aschenbrenner among the best-performing investors of the AI era.
The firm’s rapid ascent has put it in the same neighborhood as hedge fund heavyweights such as Bill Ackman’s Pershing Square and Dan Loeb’s Third Point, according to the Journal.
One of the firm’s most lucrative bets has been a stake in AI startup Anthropic, which now accounts for roughly one-fifth of its assets. Its backers also include Jane Street, the notoriously selective trading giant that rarely allocates capital to outside money managers, according to the Journal.
Investors have become so eager to follow Aschenbrenner’s moves that shares of solar manufacturer T1 Energy jumped 23% in a single day after disclosures revealed Situational Awareness had taken a stake in the company.
Not every bet has worked. Situational Awareness was hit during the market turmoil that followed the release of Chinese startup DeepSeek’s low-cost AI model last year, though the fund quickly recovered as investors piled back into AI infrastructure plays.
Before becoming a hedge fund manager, Aschenbrenner built a following in Silicon Valley with his 2024 essay “Situational Awareness: The Decade Ahead,” which argued that artificial intelligence was advancing rapidly enough to transform the global economy and reshape geopolitical competition.
The paper made him a star in tech circles and earned him the nickname “Nostradamus of AI,” with podcaster Tim Ferriss praising his track record on AI predictions.
A native of Germany, Aschenbrenner entered Columbia University at age 15 and graduated as class valedictorian before joining OpenAI, where he worked on the company’s Superalignment team.
The Post has sought comment from Aschenbrenner and Jane Street.
