Voter turnout for this year’s congressional Democratic primaries has been substantially lower so far than last year — with far fewer younger voters expected to cast ballots.
The Democratic Socialists of America and liberal leaning insiders had hoped to replicate the results of 2025, when Mayor Zohran Mamdani shocked the political establishment by toppling ex-Gov. Andrew Cuomo and other candidates in the mayor’s race largely boosted by younger voters.
“In my part of the world, turnout is a little low,” said Manhattan Democratic leader Keith Wright, referring to the 70th Assembly District in central Harlem, where his son, Assemblyman Jordan Wright, is facing a challenge from DSA challenger Conrad Blackburn.
“I have not seen the Mamdani surge from last November or the Democratic mayoral primary,” Wright said.
Mamdani was stumping the streets and nightclubs of Harlem Monday night with his democratic socialist insurgent candidate Darializa Avila Chevalier, who is challenging veteran Rep. Adriano Espaillat in the 13th House District covering Harlem, Washington Heights/Inwood and parts of the Bronx.
As of 3 p.m., more than 367,000 people voted in primaries via early voting, mail-in ballots or earlier on Tuesday.
That’s just a little over 10% of the 3.5 million registered Democrats in the city.
By comparison, more than 1 million Democrats voted in the ranked-choice Democratic primary for mayor last year, with Mamdani besting Cuomo with 573,169 votes to 443,299 votes, or about a 30% turnout.
But the turnout thus far is more than the 146,314 Democrats who voted in the Democratic primary for governor in 2022, when Kathy Hochul prevailed in the race for governor over challengers and current Rep. Tom Suozzi and city Public Advocate Jumaane Williams.
There is a statewide Democratic primary for comptroller that gives reason for all Democrats to vote in the primaries this year.
Comptroller Tom DiNapoli, in office since 2007, faces off against Democratic challengers Drew Warshaw and Raj Goyle.
- The highest turnout this primary season is centered in Manhattan and Brooklyn, where four of the most contested House races are held
- The Espaillat-Chevalier race in northern Manhattan and parts of the Bronx;
- The primary to replace Jerrold Nadler in the 12th District covering the upper east and west sides of Manhattan;
- The 10th District pitting former city Comptroller Brad Lander against two-term Rep. Dan Goldman covering lower Manhattan and brownstone Brooklyn
- The 7th District race covering the waterfront nabes of Brooklyn and Queens to replace retiring Rep. Nydia Velazquez.
Mamdani also endorsed Lander over Goldman and supports DSA Assemblywoman Claire Valdez over Brooklyn Borough President Antonio Reynoso to succeed Velazquez.
Mamdani has stayed neutral in the race to succeed Nadler, even refusing to say whom he voted for since he now resides in the district. The leading candidates are Assembly members Micah Lasher and Alex Bores, Jack Schlossberg, the grandson of John F. Kennedy, attorney George Conway and scientist Nina Schwalbe.
Voting experts said turnout will always be higher in a competitive marquee mayoral primary and presidential race than during mid-term congressional primaries.
“The turnout is going to be lower. Competitive mayoral elections almost always have higher turnout than congressional elections,” said Jerry Skurnik, a political consultant with Engage Voters US.
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But there was a dip in younger voters under 30, who came out in droves to vote for Mamdani for mayor last year but did not so in the most heavily contested House races.
“About as expected. High [turnout] for a federal off-year, low as a general matter, mainly because we have just the three hotly contested and expensive Congressional primaries really motivating people,” said John Mollenkopf, director of urban research at the CUNY Graduate Center.
“I haven’t seen the age distribution yet, but I am pretty sure that the lower age brackets have returned to the norm, which is that they have relatively low turnout.”
Mollenkopf said he’s seen “no evidence of the high level of field operations this time around” that the Democratic Socialists of American mounted for the 2025 Democratic mayoral primary for their candidate Mamdani.
“Yes, they are knocking on doors, but not with the same intensity, even in the areas that are key for them,” he said.
