There are risks and rewards to betting NCAA Tournament futures before the bracket is revealed on Selection Sunday.
The risks are obvious. You could bet a team to win it all, only to see it dropped into a brutal section of the bracket, leaving your ticket feeling dead before a game is even played.
The flip side is that your team lands in a soft region and suddenly the path to the Final Four looks realistic. From there, pundits circle your team as a dark horse, it becomes trendy, and the number begins to shorten.
Beating the bandwagon can be crucial to getting the best value ahead of the Madness.
Below are a few teams that you may want to jump on early, because there’s a decent chance that they become trendy dark horses when everybody starts doing their homework on Sunday night.
Michigan State (50/1, FanDuel)
Only four head coaches have made more trips to the Final Four than Tom Izzo, and he’s got a real chance to keep climbing that list this March.
While Michigan is sucking up most of the oxygen in the Big Ten, Sparty is doing its thing — and most importantly, they’re doing it under the radar.
As with any successful Izzo squad, Michigan State is taking care of the fundamentals as well as anybody in the country. The Spartans are the No. 1 defensive rebounding team in the country, per Bart Torvik’s model, and they grade out as the ninth-best defense overall, per KenPom.
There’s plenty to like on the offensive side of the ball, too. KenPom has the Spartans as the 27th-most efficient offense in Division I, and they rank fifth in offensive rebound percentage.
Flat out, Michigan State is tough to beat.
Ranked as a top-10 team in both KenPom and Torvik Rankings, Michigan State is an elite team that has is being priced as a long shot.
Nebraska (100/1, FanDuel)
It’s hard to believe, but the Nebraska Cornhuskers are the only team from a power conference that has never won a game in the NCAA Tournament.
That should change this March.
Nebraska had a smashing 2025-26 campaign, going 26-5 overall and finishing second in the Big Ten behind Michigan.
And it’s not just their overall record or surface-level numbers that look good; the Huskers tick a lot of boxes under the hood, too.
Ranked as the 12th-best team in the country in KenPom’s model, Nebraska has been propelled by an elite defense that is on par with the likes of Houston, Iowa State, and Florida.
The offense lags behind, but it’s not a hindrance, especially since the Huskers don’t need to shoot the lights out to have success.
Alabama (100/1, FanDuel)
While defense drives the bus for Michigan State and Nebraska, it’s the other way around for Alabama.
Only two teams (Illinois and Purdue) grade out as better offenses than the Crimson Tide per KenPom and Bart Torvik, but there is something that makes this group truly unique.
They are an elite scoring team that plays at a warp-speed pace.
Alabama ranks fourth in KenPom’s adjusted tempo rankings, which makes Nate Oats’ team an absolute chore to gameplan against. The Tide want the ball to fly up and down the court all game long, and they’ll bet on their offense to come out ahead in a high-event contest.
Alabama’s style of play makes it volatile, but the ceiling for this team is sky high, and none of the juggernauts will be happy to see the electric Tide in their path.
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Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.
