The Dream have won four straight games against the Liberty dating back to the regular season after a wild overtime thriller in Game 2.
Now, New York is on the brink of elimination with a must-win Game 3 in their WNBA semifinal matchup.
The Liberty are 3.5-point favorites in Game 3 with the Over/Under sitting at 172.5 total points.
Liberty vs. Dream prediction
The reset timeout controversy at the end of overtime will loom over Game 2. The Liberty players said they were told by officials they didn’t have one to use, but officials after the game said they told the Liberty they did.
Regardless, their season is on the line Friday night at Barclays Center, and as much as officiating was a factor, the Liberty can’t hang everything on one mistake.
They won the paint battle in Game 2 after being bullied down low Sunday and shot efficiently from beyond the arc, but lost the game because of their fatal flaw. The Liberty lost the turnover battle once again in Game 2 after acknowledging their sloppy play in Game 1.
They racked up 17 more turnovers Wednesday and allowed the Dream to score 28 points off those giveaways. Through two games, the Dream have scored 60 points combined on turnovers alone.
Bear in mind that the Dream are missing their leading scorer, Allisha Gray, who is also one of the best two-way players in the game, and the Dream were still able to sneak out a win.
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The change of venue might give the Liberty a slight energy boost, but the pattern seems clear here. The Dream can grind out wins with their defense and simply force the Liberty into making mistakes.
With the Liberty standing at the edge of elimination, I think the Dream have the perfect formula to push them over.
The Play: Dream moneyline (+140, bet365)
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Malik Smith has been immersed in the sports betting industry since 2017. He’s a data nerd with a particular focus on the NBA and combat sports. He spends his weeknights in the winter looking for edges on plus-money NBA player props.
