LA mayor’s race on a knife’s edge as nail-biting new poll released

Los Angeles’ mayoral race is hanging on a knife’s edge as the three major candidates are within spitting distance of each other with less than a week to go.

Far-left Councilwoman Nithya Raman and Mayor Karen Bass are separated by just one point, with DSA-linked Raman, who announced her late entry into the race, picking up support and now sitting at 25%, while Bass has seen slight stagnation since the previous poll at 26%, according to a new UC Berkeley–Los Angeles Times poll released Thursday.

Reality TV star Spencer Pratt is not far behind, coming in at 22% among likely voters, as the former “The Hills” villain continues gaining traction after entering the race following the loss of his home in the deadly Palisades Fire in January 2025.

Both Raman and Pratt saw major momentum boosts, each jumping eight percentage points since March, while Bass remained relatively flat.

The latest survey marked a dramatic shift in the race after earlier polling had shown the incumbent with a sizable advantage over her challengers, with analysts previously expecting her to cruise into the November runoff.

Pollsters described the contest as statistically neck and neck, with all three leading candidates falling within the margin of error.

Follow the latest on Spencer Pratt:

Mark DiCamillo, director of the Berkeley IGS poll, said turnout would likely determine which candidates advance.

While Bass and Pratt both suffer from high unfavorability ratings, Raman is the only major candidate among the top three with a net-positive favorability rating.

Bass was viewed unfavorably by 57% of likely voters, a slight increase from March. Pratt’s unfavorable rating also stood at 57%, a sharp jump from 28% in the previous poll, when more than half of voters said they had no opinion of him.

In the latest poll, 35% of likely voters viewed Bass favorably, compared with 25% for Pratt. Raman received a 40% favorable rating, while 35% viewed her unfavorably.

Bass’s campaign advisor Doug Herman told The California Post: “Everyone knew this would be a close race, and it shows Karen Bass in the lead heading into Tuesday.

“It’s a choice between a mayor who reduced homelessness and hired more officers, a councilwoman who voted repeatedly to allow encampments near schools and to shrink LAPD, or a reality TV villain. We will win.”

Bass has come under fire for her handling of the Palisades Fire, for which she faced criticism across the county.

Pratt has capitalized on frustrations over rebuilding efforts cited by many residents who lost homes, including himself, to boost his campaign. Bass has also faced criticism over homelessness, after pledging major progress on the crisis while the city has only seen modest declines in unhoused populations.

Raman, meanwhile, has criticized Bass’s “Inside Safe” homelessness program, arguing that the initiative is too expensive and unsustainable long term. Bass has pushed back by portraying Raman as ineffective on the City Council and unable to build alliances within City Hall.

Pratt has gained notoriety and also earned attention from President Donald Trump, with many comparing the celebrity candidate’s rise to Trump’s own transition from reality television star to politician. Trump recently said he hoped Pratt “does well” and described him as “a big MAGA person.”

Around 10% of voters still remain undecided, a sharp drop from March when more than a quarter of likely voters had not yet chosen a candidate.

The nonpartisan mayoral race is structured so that if no candidate secures more than 50% of the vote — which the poll suggests is unlikely — the top two vote-getters will advance to a November runoff.

As of now, Bass and Raman appear slightly ahead in the race to claim those two runoff spots, though Pratt remains within striking distance and could still shake up the final outcome.

The next mayor of Los Angeles will inherit the nation’s second-largest city budget and lead one of the biggest cities in the US as it prepares to host the FIFA World Cup and Olympic Games — two global events expected to bring millions of tourists and fans into the city.

The Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies conducted the online poll May 19–24 in English and Spanish among 1,913 registered Los Angeles voters, including 1,351 considered likely to participate in the city’s June election.

The survey offers one of the clearest snapshots yet of voter sentiment heading into the final days of the campaign.

The Post has reached out to all three campaign for comment.

Download The California Post App, follow us on social, and subscribe to our newsletters