Will Stein has already worked a minor miracle to get Kentucky to the top of the SEC standings for the first Saturday in November, but his Wildcats still have a long way to go.
No. 8 Kentucky (7-1, 4-1 SEC) takes on Tennessee at Neyland Stadium on Saturday, hosts Florida in Week 11 and then closes conference play with a visit to Missouri in Week 12.
The Wildcats close out the regular season with their annual Governor’s Cup showdown against Louisville.
The Wildcats don’t need to run the table to wrap up a shocking invitation to the College Football Playoff, but they’ll likely need to win at least three of those games to feel comfortable.
A road win over Tennessee (6-2, 3-2 SEC) would ease some of the pressure, but the bookmakers don’t see it happening.
Kentucky is a 6.5-point underdog against Rocky Top on Saturday.
Kentucky vs. Tennessee odds, prediction
Just how good is Kentucky?
There really is no right or wrong answer to that question.
While Kentucky has proven incredibly adept at winning games thanks to playing a disciplined, tidy brand of football, the Wildcats also boast a pretty underwhelming statistical profile.
They’re near the top of FBS when it comes to taking care of the ball (0.7 giveaways per game) and keeping the refs onside (4.3 penalties per game), but they’re just OK at actually moving the ball. Same goes for stopping the other team from moving the ball.
Kentucky’s quarterback, Kenny Minchey, reflects all of this. His numbers are middle of the road for the signal-caller on an SEC contender, but he’s only thrown one interception on the season and it came in Week 2 against Alabama.
Kentucky grades out as the 29th-best offensive team by SP+ this season, and the defense is a drop below that at No. 40. Overall, SP+ has Kentucky as the 34th-best team in FBS, between James Madison and North Dakota State.
Sagarin, another widely respected power rankings system, has the Wildcats well north of that, but still behind their poll ranking at No. 18.
By those numbers, you’d think that Kentucky would be the overrated team in this contest in Knoxville, but I’d argue it’s the Volunteers who are getting too much respect.
Both SP+ and Sagarin have Tennessee at No. 11 overall, but most of that respect is built on a defense that has excelled under new defensive coordinator Jim Knowles.
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It’s a good thing, too, because the Vols are really struggling to move the ball.
Josh Heupel’s teams are usually noted for their offensive explosiveness, but this iteration of Tennessee ranks 105th in yards per play and 114th in yards per pass. The Volunteers are getting next to nothing out of their quarterbacks, and it speaks volumes that Heupel refuses to commit to a starter this deep into a season.
Tennessee, like Kentucky, isn’t really built to overwhelm teams this year. The Vols need to dig in, hang around, and hope they come out on top.
That’s not the type of team you want to back as a 6.5-point favorite.
The Play: Kentucky +6.5 (-105, DraftKings)
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Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.
