Trading Noah Dobson Montreal last summer may have been the only choice Mathieu Darche had, and it may turn into a long-term win-win for both teams. One year in, with Victor Eklund and Kashawn Aitcheson yet to make their NHL debuts — though hopefully the Islanders call up Eklund Tuesday to make Game 82 interesting — it’s too early to judge.
What was strange though, and what remains strange, was seeing much of the reaction toward Dobson from Islanders fans, which so often boiled down to “Good riddance.” Had Dobson — who suffered an upper-body injury on Saturday and will be reevaluated in two weeks, taking him out of at least some of the Habs’ first-round series — made his return to Long Island on Sunday as scheduled for the Islanders’ 4-11 playoff-eliminating loss, it seemed a distinct possibility that he would face boos.
Maybe, and hopefully, that is a misread based on the more online parts of the fan base. When Dobson makes his return to UBS with the Canadiens next season, he ought to be cheered. The 26-year-old was an excellent Islander, always represented the franchise well and has predictably proven hard to replace. One of Lou Lamoriello’s bigger missteps was failing to extend Dobson and treat him like a franchise cornerstone two summers ago. That much is obvious.
It’s hard to say the Islanders would be in playoff position with Dobson now, mainly because you can’t predict the cascading effects of adding his $9.5 million to the cap on the Islanders’ summer. But what you can say with certainty is that the Islanders very badly missed him this season.
That’s nothing against the trade, which was made with the long-term in mind, or Emil Heineman, who played well above expectation in scoring 22 goals and looks like a long-term piece of the puzzle for the Isles. It’s an acknowledgement of something obvious: that a right-handed, puck-moving defenseman who plays over 20 minutes a night is a rare commodity in the NHL, and the Islanders’ blue line lacked depth all season.
There is an idea out there that having Matthew Schaefer allowed the Islanders to trade Dobson without losing anything. Schaefer, though, is left-handed, and no one expected — let alone knew — that he would be so impactful when the deal was made on draft night.
The Islanders managed to patch the hole on their right side with Tony DeAngelo this season, and would be well-served bringing back No. 77 this summer. It’s no coincidence that much of their collapse happened when DeAngelo was out of the lineup injured; being without a puck-moving righty at a crucial point of the season proved near-impossible to overcome.
Short term, that was about as good a solution as you could expect. Combined with Heineman’s season, and the encouraging developments of Eklund and Aitcheson, and the long term outlook of the deal seems, tentatively, solid.
Still, it is a complicated deal to judge, and a lot needs to go right for the Islanders to feel good about it in five years.
Dobson picked up in Montreal where he left off on Long Island, lugging 22:29 per night with 47 points. He is a frustrating player in that his mistakes seem to always be highlight-worthy in the wrong way. He’s also more than good enough to make that tradeoff worth it.
His injury, and the prospect of being without him in the playoffs, amounts to a major problem for the Canadiens, who usually deploy Dobson and Mike Matheson against the opposition’s top line.
If Eklund becomes a piece of the Islanders’ top-six and Aitcheson a piece of the top-four, on top of Heineman being an annual 20-goal scorer, then of course the Islanders would feel great about it. That is also something like a best-case scenario.
Prospects, even good ones, are unknown commodities. The Islanders have made strides in how they’ve invested in Bridgeport and in player development this season. Still, they are not going to have a 100 percent hit rate. They also could use more consistency from Heineman, which they will hope comes in time for a player still early in his career.
You can safely say now that Darche turned a hard situation into something promising. That was about as much as he could have done upon realizing that Dobson would not be an Islander this season. It was a smart piece of work by a rookie general manager in a situation that could have ended much worse.
Whether the Islanders won the deal, though, is a different question altogether. One season isn’t enough time to answer it.
