Vice President JD Vance glumly assessed that the Trump administration’s efforts to peacefully resolve the bloody war in Ukraine could go either way.
“We’re going to keep on trying to negotiate. And I think that we’ve made progress, but sitting here today, I wouldn’t say with confidence that we’re going to get to a peaceful resolution,” the veep bluntly assessed in an Unheard interview.
“I think there’s a good chance we will, I think there’s a good chance we won’t.”
Vance’s candid assessment is one of the more gloomy ones he’s given about the chances of ending the war over recent months.
It comes after Secretary of State Marco Rubio told reporters last Friday that there is a “ways to go” on getting a final deal across the finish line.
Late last week and over the weekend, special envoy Steve Witkoff met separately with Russian and Ukrainian negotiators in a bid to inch forward progress on a potential peace deal. Vance was briefed on those talks.
“The breakthrough that I do feel that we’ve made is that all of the issues are actually out in the open,” the VP told the outlet. “There’s [initially] a little bit of a game of obfuscation, of hiding behind fake issues, not actually revealing your hand.”
“The Russians really want territorial control of the Donetsk,” he continued.”The Ukrainians understandably see that as a major security problem, [even as] they privately acknowledge that eventually, they’ll probably lose Donetsk — but, eventually: it could be 12 months from now, it could be longer than that.”
By some estimates, the Russians control between 80% and 90% of Donetsk, but crucially lack possession of strategic cities such as Kramatorsk and Slovyansk.
The VP also noted that other issues, such as ethnic Russians and Ukrainians being in the other country, control of the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant, and reconstruction, have also proven to be tough sticking points.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has said that his country’s constitution percludes him from surrendering land that hasn’t been conquered.
Zelensky has dangled the possibility of placing 15% of the Donbas — Donetsk and Luhansk — that Ukraine still controls into a neutral free economic zone. Russia has rejected that.
Compared to Vance’s recent assessment, Witkoff has been a touch more upbeat about the chances of ending the war, with the special envoy touting “constructive and productive” talks with Ukraine and Russia over recent days.
President Trump has seemingly wavered back and forth on the potential for a breakthrough and conveyed frustration that his peace efforts have been taking so long.
“We’re closer now than we have been, ever,” Trump crowed a week ago.
