The New York Islanders get their season started against the Toronto Maple Leafs on Wednesday night.
The two franchises are an interesting juxtaposition of each other.
Eighteen months ago, the hockey gods smiled on the Islanders by gifting them a win in the Draft Lottery, which allowed the club to select Matthew Schaefer. The 19-year-old defenseman is already the face of the franchise and one of the best at his position in the entire league.
Logic would suggest that the Isles should have moved heaven and earth to make the team around Schaefer better as quickly as possible, but general manager Mathieu Darche has opted to take a more patient approach, for better or worse.
John Chayka, the new general manager of the Maple Leafs, has gone in a different direction in a similar situation. Three months ago, Toronto was blessed by the hockey gods and won the 2026 Draft Lottery, which allowed the Leafs to take Gavin McKenna. Instead of being patient, Chayka quickly revamped the team. He brought in 11 new regulars, including Kirill Marchenko, just two days ago.
While the fanbase in Toronto has been reinvigorated after a lousy 2025-26 campaign, the Islanders fanbase is simmering. The Leafs are now -122 to make the playoffs at FanDuel Sportsbook, while the Isles are +290, tied with Detroit for the longest odds in the Eastern Conference.
If the Islanders are going to upset those odds, they’ll need to get off to a strong start. This team just doesn’t have the talent, especially with Mat Barzal injured, to make up ground.
The path to a strong start for the Islanders will have to be back to front. The Isles don’t have the offensive firepower to overwhelm teams, so they’ll need to try and smother them.
On the surface, you’d think it could work. They’ve certainly got the goaltender to pull it off, and one of head coach Pete DeBoer’s biggest strengths is getting his team organized in the defensive zone, but this blueline looks like it could be a real mess, especially with the puck.
Schaefer aside, the Islanders have one other defenseman, Tony DeAngelo, who can transport the biscuit, but he gives a lot of that back with his lack of acumen in front of goal.
Over time, this unit hopefully will get better under DeBoer, but I wouldn’t expect them to be well-drilled out of the gate.
Betting on the NHL?
The Maple Leafs have a similar issue on their backend. Toronto added plenty of skill up front, but the Buds allowed the second-most goals in the NHL last season. I expect that problem will linger, as the Leafs seem hell-bent on becoming a team that wins 6-5 games, rather than one that will drill down to win 3-2 contests.
In addition to the Over 6.5, I like the idea of backing Matias Maccelli to find the back of the net for the Islanders against his former team.
Maccelli was a standout for the Isles in preseason and earned a premium spot in the top-six and on the power play. You should get a great price on Maccelli, who is known more for his playmaking than his finishing.
The Plays: Over 6.5 goals (+112, FanDuel) | Matias Maccelli to score 1+ goals (+350, DraftKings)
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Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.
