Mark Dubowitz says Trump holds ‘maximum leverage’ over Iran as ceasefire begins
Mark Dubowitz, CEO of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, analyzes President Trump’s firm Iran policy following a two-week ceasefire agreement. He highlights the regime’s weakened state after 15 months of Trump’s administration, making Iran’s 10-point peace plan with “ridiculous demands” unlikely to be accepted. Dubowitz discusses the choice facing Iran’s new regime.
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The lack of a two-week pause in the fighting between Israel and Hezbollah appears to be a dealbreaker for Iran’s regime as the ceasefire takes effect.
While the Trump administration maintains the deal does not include the Tehran-backed terrorist movement Hezbollah, Iran is threatening to use that exclusion as a pressure point against the U.S., potentially collapsing the entire ceasefire.
On Wednesday, Iran’s Foreign Minister Seyed Abbas Araghchi wrote on X that “The Iran–U.S. Ceasefire terms are clear and explicit: the U.S. must choose—ceasefire or continued war via Israel. It cannot have both. The world sees the massacres in Lebanon. The ball is in the U.S. court, and the world is watching whether it will act on its commitments.”
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Rescue workers search for victims at the site of an Israeli airstrike that hit a crowded neighbourhood south of Beirut, Lebanon, Sunday, April 5, 2026. (Hussein Malla/AP)
His comments were later echoed by Iran’s parliamentary speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, citing Israeli attacks in Lebanon. Earlier in the day, Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, a key intermediary in ceasefire talks between the U.S. and Iran over Operation Epic Fury, said the two-week ceasefire would include Lebanon.
Hezbollah reneged on a U.S. negotiated November 2024 ceasefire by entering the war against Israel on March 2025 to aid Iran. Many experts say long-term regional security depends on Lebanon’s government and army disarming the terror group.
Hezbollah al-Mahdi scouts parade with big portraits of Iran’s late leader Ayatollah Khomeini, foreground, and Iran’s supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, background, during an event for Jerusalem day or Al-Quds day, in the southern town of Nabatiyeh, Lebanon, Thursday, Aug. 1, 2013. The last Friday of the Islamic holy month of Ramadan is observed in many Muslim countries as Al-Quds day, as a way of expressing support to the Palestinians and emphasizing the importance of Jerusalem to Muslims. (Hussein Malla/AP)
Edy Cohen, an Israeli security expert on Hezbollah, who was born in Lebanon, told Digital that “Hezbollah will never disarm itself. From its perspective, it protects two million Shiites. The only way to defeat Hezbollah is to first define it as a terrorist organization. Not to allow its political wing to exist and also to order the Lebanese army to gather in the areas under its control area by area.”
He added that “Dismantling Hezbollah must be carried out in stages. The Lebanese government must first take possession of the heavy weapons. Not to allow it to concentrate except in Dahiya [a Beirut suburb that is a Hezbollah and Shiite stronghold]. Leave it in one place and control all the roads leading to it. Little by little, it can be dismantled. Israel cannot and should not disarm Hezbollah. It can only assist with bombing from above.”
TRUMP’S IRAN CEASEFIRE ROCKED WITHIN HOURS AMID REPORTED MISSILE, DRONE ATTACKS
U.S. President Donald Trump welcomes Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to his Mar-a-Lago club on December 29, 2025 in Palm Beach, Florida. (Joe Raedle/Getty Images)
On Wednesday, the IDF said it hit over 100 targets in 10 minutes, including, “Hezbollah headquarters, military arrays, and command-and-control centers: Intelligence command centers and central headquarters used by Hezbollah terrorists for directing and planning terror attacks against IDF soldiers and Israeli civilians.” Reuters, quoting the country’s health ministry, said some 91 people were killed in Beirut, with a total of at least 182 killed nationwide on Wednesday.
The IDF added, “The large-scale strike was based on precise IDF intelligence and was planned meticulously over weeks. Most of the infrastructure that was struck was located within the heart of the civilian population, as part of Hezbollah’s cynical exploitation of Lebanese civilians as human shields in order to safeguard its operations. Prior to the strikes, steps were taken to mitigate harm to uninvolved individuals as much as possible.”
Since the war started and before Wednesday’s attacks, Israeli airstrikes have killed more than 1,530 people in Lebanon, according to the Associated Press. The Long War Journal notes “that neither the Lebanese Health Ministry nor Hezbollah has provided an official count of the group’s fallen fighters.”
Hezbollah terrorists are shown in this image. A “terrorist network” funded and operated by Hezbollah and Iran has been foiled in the United Arab Emirates, according to a report. (Fadel Itani/NurPhoto)
Guila Fakhoury, whose father, Amer, was kidnapped by Hezbollah in 2019, told Digital that “Iran and the IRGC are occupying Lebanon through their proxy Hezbollah.”
Fakhoury, who was born in Lebanon, said, “The majority of Lebanese people believe the actions of Hezbollah caused Israel to occupy southern Lebanon and don’t want Iran and Hezbollah. Hezbollah is threatening the entire government.”
VANCE WARNS IRAN WILL ‘FIND OUT’ TRUMP IS ‘NOT ONE TO MESS AROUND’ IF CEASEFIRE DEAL FALLS APART
A mourner holds a poster depicting Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei, right, the successor to his late father Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, left, as supreme leader, during the funeral procession for senior Iranian military officials and civilians killed during the U.S.-Israel campaign in Tehran, Iran, Wednesday, March 11, 2026. (Vahid Salemi/AP)
As the president and co-founder of the Amer Foundation, an organization dedicated to help families of illegal detainees and educate on Middle East policy and geopolitics, said she is seeing some positive steps being taken including Lebanese President Joseph Aoun calling for negotiations with Israel.
She said the “only solution is to have peace with Israel. I think there a lot of Shiites who are against Hezbollah… The majority of the Lebanese people just want peace. We hope the Trump administration will push the Lebanese government and Israel’s government to start peace talks.”
Last week, Iran’s regime defied Lebanon’s expulsion order for its ambassador by saying he would stay, further increasing tensions in a country in the crosshairs of the latest fighting between the Iranian-backed Hezbollah and Israel.
Lebanon had declared Ambassador Mohammad Reza Shibani “persona non grata” to weaken Iran’s diplomatic presence and have a chargé d’affaires at its embassy instead. But the deadline to leave the country was Sunday and an Iranian spokesperson said the ambassador’s mission in Beirut continues.
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Digital reached out to Lebanon’s government and the Embassy in Washington D.C. for a comment.
The Associated Press and Reuters contributed to this report.
