WASHINGTON — Iran is poised to attract up to $300 billion in investments from the very Gulf states it targeted with drones and missiles throughout the more than three-month-old war — if it can get its act together, Vice President JD Vance said Monday.
“That’s the sort of thing they could have access to, funded by the Gulf Coast Coalition, so long as they honor their end of the obligation,” Vance told CBS News on Monday, when asked whether the US-Iran memorandum of understanding electronically signed Sunday allowed for a “$300 billion reconstruction fund.”
While the vice president made clear that the funds — meant for Iran’s reconstruction — will only be paid upon Iran meeting certain requirements, critics are skeptical, as the MOU’s text has yet to be released and Iran has not acknowledged the conditions attached to the funds.
“We absolutely are open to the Gulf Coast countries investing in the reconstruction of Iran, but only if Iran ends their nuclear program, ends their enriched stockpile of material, and is really open to an inspections and enforcement regime that gives the American people confidence they’re never going to have a nuclear weapon,” Vance said.
Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC) has signaled his skepticism of the MOU and the potentially massive payout for Iran, posting X on Friday that “idea of a $300 billion reconstruction fund, given who is in charge of Iran, seems to be tone deaf. It would be akin to a Marshall Plan for Germany with the Nazis still in charge.”
By Monday, the hawkish senator said he expects the Trump administration to release the text so he wouldn’t have to rely on “Iranian propaganda reports.”
Provided the MOU actually says what the White House is claiming, Graham said, “the proposal as envisioned by the Vice President and the Trump Administration to end the Iranian conflict would be transformative for the region and a major achievement, leading to broader peace.”
When the US and Israel attacked Iran on Feb. 28, Iran retaliated by firing on Gulf neighbors, including UAE, Qatar, Jordan, Kuwait and Saudi Arabia — which host US military installations.
While the text of the deal has yet to be released, the diplomatic breakthrough is designed to restore the situation to its state before the war broke out — with the Strait of Hormuz open and no US naval blockade. Trickier negotiations over nuclear would be worked out later.
“Behave like a normal country”
The reconstruction fund is one of several details trickling out this week from the US-Iran MOU that was signed electronically behind closed doors on Sunday.
Iran can also gain sanctions relief, a return to the global economy and billions in unfrozen assets in the already-signed Memorandum of Understanding with the US if it can do one simple thing: behave like a “normal country,” a senior US official said Monday.
“The more they behave like a normal country, the more that they show they’re willing to be a good partner, then we’re going to be willing to be extraordinarily generous in opening up their economy and opening up the sanctions relief that the deal contemplates,” the person said.
Specifically, Tehran will also receive conditional, phased sanctions relief, a lifted blockade that will allow Iran to recoup the $14 billion per month it’s currently losing with US operations, the return of billions in frozen assets.
The US would in turn receive compliance with yet-to-be-disclosed denuclearization milestones, and potentially Iran’s abandonment of supporting terrorist proxy groups like Hamas and Hezbollah.
America would also lose one of its most significant points of leverage: its tight grip on the Iranian economy.
“The blockade was incredibly effective towards causing financial stranglehold on them. Economic Fury was also incredibly effective on them, and we saw that all over,” the second official said, referring to the Treasury’s efforts to pressure Iran. “I think that led us to this to this dialog.”
The sprawling economic relief will be doled out gradually, in exchange for Tehran meeting unspecified milestones that officials on Monday declined to specifically outline as both Washington and Tehran refuse to release the actual text of MOU.
The lack of the agreement — which was signed electronically on Sunday — has caused the rumor mill to gone wild, fueled by Iranian propaganda highlighting its wins while ignoring what it will have to give up, frustrating even the senior-most US officials.
“There is a lot of misinformation out there,” the second official said. “… What you’re seeing now is that the hardliners on both sides — in the Iranian system that are protesting [the deal] and we have certain people in the American system who say there’s no deal you could ever do with Iran ever — are obviously making a lot of noise.
“But all the details of the agreement have not been put out yet,” the person added, noting that “technical discussions” with Iran will begin later this week.
Regional investments
The up to $300 billion in reconstruction funds would come from a gathering of Gulf nations facilitated by the US, and would come not as cash, but through investment deals.
But Iran will only have the opportunity to attract the up to $300 billion in investment for reconstruction from Gulf nations if it makes changes necessary to gain their buy-in.
“That only happens if they make themselves investable, when they make themselves a country where you can really see that there’s not going to be snapback [sanctions for] pursuing a nuclear weapon or playing these games in the shadows,” a second official explained.
But Iran must first make unspecified concessions to be able to access the funds, the person added.
While Iranian state media had painted the funds as a giveaway to pay for reconstruction, officials said it would be investments into infrastructure.
“The hard-liners in the Iranian system will overemphasize the benefits that Iran gets, while underemphasizing all the things that they have to concede, and all the things they have to provide, in order to get these benefits,” Vance said.
Cold, hard cash
But cash-strapped after 3.5 months of war and 63 days of a US blockade on its ports, Iran still needs a way to get funds as soon as possible, regional sources told The Post on Monday. That’s where frozen assets come into play.
While other elements of the deal — such as sanctions relief — would take weeks to months for the technical details to be worked out and for Iran to see the benefits, unfreezing assets could provide much more immediate relief.
That relief could be granted near instantly — just as soon as Tehran meets certain undisclosed milestones, the US officials said.
“We really do want to get to a place where we can unsanction a lot of the Iranian economy, where we can unfreeze these assets, but it requires Iran to do some of the things that they’re promising to do,” the first official said.
It is unclear if those milestones have been specifically enumerated, if those details will be hammered out ahead of the Friday signing ceremony, or whether the officials are waiting for technical talks later this week.
No more blockade
The US in the MOU committed to gradually lifting its blockade on Iran, which is currently costing Tehran about $500 million each day — or roughly $14 billion per month, the administration has said.
In exchange, Iran would reopen the strait to all ships without charging a toll.
Still, it would take “weeks” before traffic levels show a significant increase — and possibly even longer for them to return to pre-war transit totals, the first official said.
“It takes a little bit of time because you have lines in the straits, you have ships that have different risk tolerances — some crews are ready to go down [now,] … some crews want to see a little bit more stability for the next couple of days, maybe the next couple of weeks,” the official said.
“… That will ramp up slowly over time.”
Sanctions relief
Tehran will also have the opportunity to have its sanctions lifted, conditioned on its compliance with US demands, the official said.
“Sanctions relief is not tied specifically to any particular conduct, it’s tied generally to them behaving more appropriately,” the first official said. “Obviously the thing that we care the most about is the nuclear program, and making progress on … ensuring they don’t rebuild [nuclear facilities.]”
While the official did not specify exactly what steps Tehran would need to take for sanctions relief, the progress would revolve around ending its nuclear program and its support for terror groups.
Shipping “fees” possible
Beyond the 60-day window, Iran is looking to rake in more money.
Tehran is working with Oman this week to set up a mandatory “fee” system for “birthing, insurance and other ancillary services” it plans to enact after the 60 days of negotiations are up, a regional source told The Post on Monday.
Iran originally wanted to charge a toll to transit the strait, claiming it was its territorial waters, but that idea was refused by the Trump administration and would have violated international law.
Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmail Bagahei painted the fee endeavor as payment for Iran and Oman “maintaining the environment” — but critics see it as a way to circumvent the ban on tolls and still charge for strait access.
The US is against tolls, but has not said whether the MOU provides a potential carveout for Oman and Iran to charge “fees” after the 60-day period.
The White House did not respond to a question on whether the US is aware of the plan and if it would be accepted.
