ARLINGTON, Texas — The World Cup’s most compelling tactical matchup is here.
All tournament long, France has looked like the best team. And all tournament long, Spain has grown into itself, looking more and more like the team that knocked off Les Bleus each of the past two years, first in the Euro 2024 semifinal, then in a UEFA Nations League semi last year.
This time, the stakes couldn’t be bigger with a spot in the World Cup final on the line.
The Post breaks down the World Cup semifinal between Spain and France.
When France has the ball
Didier Deschamps is surely the coach with more to consider in this matchup. France, which has set up with four attackers throughout the tournament, now faces a team in Spain that figures to possess the ball more than it and whose three-man midfield of Dani Olmo, Pedri (or Fabián Ruiz) and Rodri will have a numerical advantage over Adrien Rabiot and Manu Koné (or Aurélien Tchouaméni). That could force Deschamps to consider adjusting the uber-aggressive 4-2-3-1 in which his team has set up all tournament, even midgame if need be.
France’s two central midfielders, whoever it is that Deschamps picks, will have crucial roles to play. Spain has been the best counter-pressing team in the World Cup, but its fullbacks, Pedro Porro and Marc Cucurella, both push high up the field and there is danger of leaving space in behind for Ousmane Dembélé or Désiré Doué on the counterattack. Line-breaking passes from Rabiot and Koné, and their decisiveness on the ball, will be critical in those moments.
If France can solve that counterpress, it may change the very shape of the game in its favor. Without significant ball possession, what does Spain look like and how might Luis de la Fuente adjust? When these teams met in the Nations League last year, France had 57 percent of the ball and the result was a far more open game than the Euro 2024 semifinal between them. Still, it ended in a 5-4 Spanish victory, as opposed to the 2-1 a summer before.
France’s front four are beyond anything Spain has. Kylian Mbappé, Michael Olise, Dembélé and Bradley Barcola — with Doué coming off the bench until Deschamps swapped him and Barcola in the quarterfinal — present a problem to which no opponent has come up with an adequate answer. Spain, at least on paper, will try to make this a midfield battle and force Deschamps to rethink the premise by which he’s operated the entire tournament.
His response to that will dictate so much. If you are likening it to a chess game, it does seem that France is white, and needs to think carefully about the first move.
When Spain has the ball
With respect to Aymeric Laporte, Pau Cubarsí and Unai Simón, Spain’s defensive success in this tournament has had less to do with them and more with its relentless ball possession. At 66 percent, per FotMob, no team has held onto the ball more than La Roja in this tournament.
Spain’s short passes and deliberate nature bring to mind its 2010 midfield that won the country’s sole World Cup. That team also set up in a 4-2-3-1, won game after game 1-0 and brought forth accusations of being boring.
If de la Fuente’s side controls the ball the way it has the rest of the tournament, it can overload France in the midfield and go from there. France’s front four will be forced to shoulder more defensive responsibility, unless Deschamps changes the shape entirely. Eventually, space will open up in behind for Lamine Yamal, Alex Baena and Mikel Oyarzabal to run into.
The questions for Spain are how it will set up in midfield, having started Fabian Ruiz over Pedri against Belgium, and how much de la Fuente will allow his fullbacks to get up the field given the counterattacking threat from France’s front line. Keeping the same game state that it’s had throughout the tournament, though, feels crucial for Spain.
Intangibles
Spain has beaten France in both of their last two meetings, and starting from Yamal, has indicated it won’t be cowed by Les Bleus. Likewise, though, France won’t have trouble handling the pressure given its extensive experience on stages like this. There’s not likely to be a significant crowd advantage for either team and an indoor field means that heat won’t play a factor.
Prediction
Deschamps solves the puzzle.
France 3-2 after extra time.
