I was wrong about the last hockey play that I had. It was just a couple of nights ago, and in this same matchup. Tonight, we have a Game 5 over in the Eastern Conference and the first game of the series where a team can officially make it to the Stanley Cup Finals. Either the Canadiens extend the series, or the Hurricanes finally punch their ticket.
You almost feel sorry for the Montreal Canadiens. They’ve taken the postseason and had to play every single possible game. To their credit, they’ve persevered and won the first two series. I made a point of this the other day, but this is now the 19th game that the Canadiens will play in the postseason. They didn’t exactly have to battle to get into the postseason, but it does make for a grueling campaign. It also puts a lot of mental pressure on you as you’re constantly battling.
Carolina Hurricanes goaltender Frederik Andersen and defenseman Brent Burns celebrate at the end of the third period in Game 4 of the NHL Stanley Cup Eastern Conference finals against the Florida Panthers in Sunrise, Fla., on May 26, 2025. (AP Photo/Lynne Sladky)
The good news for Montreal is that they’ve been in these situations before. They haven’t exactly faced elimination in this way, aside from two Game 7s. In those previous elimination games, goalie Jakub Dobes was fantastic. Dobes allowed three total goals in over two hours on the ice. He stopped 65 of the 68 shots that came his way. Can he do it again tonight, and then for another two games if they do win?
The Carolina Hurricanes are just one game away from finally reaching the Stanley Cup Finals. They have looked like the best team in the playoffs, losing just one game. The lone loss was fairly ugly as they lost 6-2 in the first game of this series. Since then, they’ve looked like their normal selves, winning the past three games. Their first two wins came in overtime with identical 3-2 scores. Then in the most recent game, they were able to take the win 4-0, finally getting to Dobes.
NHL betting outlook focuses on two teams more familiar with each other in Game 4, ready for scoring
Seth Jarvis (right) and the Carolina Hurricanes currently lead the Montreal Canadiens 2-1 in the Eastern Conference Final. (Eric Bolte-Imagn Images)
The Hurricanes are massive favorites tonight to close out the series. They have three chances to make it to the Finals, so if they fail tonight, it won’t be the end of the world, but the pressure is on them to get it done. The team is on the verge of something they haven’t done with this group. The team will continue to ride Frederik Andersen, who is playing much better after that first game. The Hurricanes’ defense deserves a lot of credit, though, as they have only allowed 64 shots on Andersen in this series.
I’m not sure that the Canadiens’ offense knows how to attack this Carolina defense. During the regular season, the team averaged 26.3 shots per game. That isn’t a ton, but the Carolina defense has held them to just 16 shots per game, down from the 23.9 they allowed opponents during the regular season.
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Montreal Canadiens goaltender Jakub Dobes looks on during the first period of an NHL game against the Minnesota Wild in St. Paul, Minn., on Feb. 2, 2026. (AP Photo/Matt Krohn)
Hockey is not a sport where a team just gives up. These games have been competitive, but I think Andersen and the Hurricanes’ defense are locked in right now. I don’t expect the Canadiens to win, and I think this is likely to be a lower-scoring game. Specifically, I will take the Canadiens to go under their 2.5 team total.
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