How Democrats flipped Senate seats in red states: Voter Poll

The much-touted “blue wave” came to fruition as Democrats won a stunning run of victories in both red and blue states.

They also came out ahead in key governor’s races.

The Voter Poll, a survey of more than 100,000 voters nationwide, highlights the central themes and demographic groups that defined these important races.

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SOUTH CAROLINA

Democrat Annie Andrews won a close-run race against incumbent Republican Darline Graham to flip a Senate seat that had been in the hands of Graham’s brother Lindsey for more than 20 years.

Appointed to the seat after her brother’s death in July, Graham underperformed his electoral strength; he won re-election to the Senate in 2020 by 11 percentage points. She also underperformed President Donald Trump’s strength among key groups from two years ago.

Rural voters, for instance, backed Trump with 63% in 2024 – Graham this year garnered only 51%. Former Vice President Kamala Harris received 36% of the rural vote in 2024; Andrews bested that by about 10 points.

Graham did manage to hang on to non-MAGA Republican voters, amid concerns that they would defect. But again, she got 70% of their vote, while Trump pulled in 79% two years ago.

Independents: Andrews ran away among these voters, getting about 7 in 10. Trump received 39%, while Graham managed less than 20%.

Andrews did well with women, college graduates and urban voters.

She also benefited from Democrats being more unified behind her than Republicans were for Graham. Almost all Democrats backed Andrews, while just about 8 in 10 Republicans voted for Graham. More than 10% of Republicans crossed party lines to support Andrews.

The economy was by far the top issue in the state, with more than four in 10 putting it in the top spot. Andrews received the majority of those voters.

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Three-quarters said inflation caused their family hardship in the past year, and more than half are very concerned about the cost of gas, food, utilities and healthcare.

And voters blame Trump for their economic woes: six in 10 say his policies have made things worse, and more than half blame him for inflation.

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Graham was also found lacking as far as having the right experience to serve as senator. More than six in 10 said she did not.

OHIO

Democrat Sherrod Brown won back his seat in the Senate, flipping it into the “D” column. He was ahead in the polls throughout the race and pulled off a win against Republican John Husted, who had been appointed to JD Vance’s seat when he became vice president.

Husted tried to play the “extreme” card on Brown, which didn’t quite play among an electorate that was familiar with him after serving three terms in the Senate. More than half said he wasn’t.

Brown did, on the other hand, wield the too-close-to-Trump card on Husted – and quite effectively at that, with close to six in 10 voters saying the Republican was too supportive of the president.

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The question of whether Democrats could regain working-class voters amid concerns over the economy and affordability was at the heart of this race. And it appears they did.

Husted struggled with working class voters. Two years ago, Trump pulled in 61% of voters with no college degree – Husted got only half.

Trump also dominated among rural voters two years ago, garnering 70%; Husted was about 11 percentage points below that.

Young voters: Trump pulled in 60% of voters under 30 in 2024; Husted, not even a quarter. That is an enormous swing to Brown and the Democrats.

Hispanic voters were another huge swing back into the Democratic column. Trump got 58% to Harris’ 41% in 2024. This time, three-quarters of them went for Brown.

The economy was definitely at the top of voters’ minds. Close to seven in 10 say the state of the economy is not good, eight in 10 say inflation has been a hardship for them, and six in 10 say Trump’s policies are to blame.

Add that up, and Trump was no doubt a drag on Republican Husted. The president’s job approval is underwater by close to 20 points.

Six in 10 also say that Trump prioritizes his own interests rather than the country’s.

In the end, it was a tough year to run as a Republican – even in a traditionally Republican state – when the party’s president is unpopular and people are worried about their finances.

Finally, the top quality Ohio voters say they are looking for in a senator is change. And Brown is apparently that guy, with half of those voters backing him compared to about four in 10 for Husted.

The Ohio governor’s race was competitive, but ended in the “D” column as well. A controversial ad by the Vivek Ramaswamy campaign attacking Democrat Amy Acton appears to have had little impact, with voters who made their decision in the last week basically breaking even between the two candidates.

MAINE

Five-term Sen. Susan Collins was the only Republican member of Congress from New England – and that total is now down to zero after first-time candidate Troy Jackson, a former logger and Maine Senate president, defeated the Vacationland mainstay.

The race was tight throughout, but Democrats spent a lot of time tying Collins as closely as they could to President Trump, who is not very popular among Maine voters, 6 in 10 of whom disapprove of the job he is doing.

That seems to have had an effect, with six in 10 saying she is too supportive of the president.

Who controls the Senate was a big concern for Maine voters, with eight in 10 saying it was a crucial or major factor to their vote. Jackson carried those voters by more than 10 points.

The state of democracy was the number one issue for Maine voters. And these voters went eight in 10 for Jackson.

Three quarters are angry or dissatisfied with the direction the country is going; again, those voters went overwhelmingly for Jackson.

The quality Mainers said they’d most like to see in their senator is the ability to bring needed change. Those voters went big for Jackson.

Jackson bested Collins among women, young voters, college graduates, liberals, urban and suburban voters.

One of Collins’ strongest groups was non-MAGA Republicans, which was pretty much her brand. But not enough to carry the day.

IOWA

Trump won Iowa by 13 percentage points in 2024, but two years later Republican Ashley Hinson was edged out by Democrat Josh Turek, who flipped the seat currently held by retiring Sen. Joni Ernst.

Hinson managed to hang on to rural voters, but not by as much as Trump did two years ago, and that could have been a key factor in the race, with rural Republican voters feeling hampered by tariffs, high gas and diesel prices and the Iran war.

Six in 10 voters say tariffs are hurting Iowa’s economy, the same number who say they are very concerned about the price of gas, and the same number yet again who say the Iran war, a major cause of high gas prices, was the wrong decision.

Iowa voters are not happy with the way things are going in the country, to say the least, with seven in 10 who are angry or dissatisfied about it.

Iowans don’t approve of the job Trump is doing, and Hinson likely paid a price for that, with more than half saying she is too supportive of him.

In the end, Turek’s strength among young voters and Hispanics – two groups Trump did very well with only two years ago – plus college graduates and suburban voters was all too much for Hinson to overcome.

KANSAS

What seemed a safe bet turned into a surprisingly tough re-election bid for Kansas Republican Sen. Roger Marshall, who lost to popular megachurch pastor Adam Hamilton in a flip for the Democratic column.

Kansas hasn’t elected a Democrat to the Senate in nearly 100 years. But Hamilton, being a well-known figure in the state, plus the headwinds of a tough economy and an unpopular president facing Marshall, was able to change that.

The price of gas was a big concern for Kansas voters, a fact Marshall himself acknowledged during the campaign. And indeed, more than half of them said they were very concerned about it.

The war in Iran, one of the causes of those high gas prices, was another concern, with six in 10 saying it was the wrong decision, and more than nine in 10 saying it was a factor to their vote.

Tariffs were another key issue in a farm state, with six in 10 saying it’s hurting the Kansas economy.

Rural voters backed Trump 72% two years ago, but only about six in 10 did the same for Marshall.

Trump overall was not a help for Marshall, even though he campaigned for him in the state three times. His job approval is underwater by more than 10 points, and Marshall made no attempt to distance himself from the increasingly unpopular president.

That likely hurt him in the end, as six in 10 Kansas voters point the finger at Trump’s policies for inflation and for worsening economic conditions.

They also think Trump has taken his eye off the ball when it comes to what matters, with close to six in 10 saying the president is focusing on the wrong priorities. Those voters went almost 10 to one for Hamilton.

In addition to rural voters, Marshall also underperformed rather spectacularly with young voters, who gave Trump 58% of the vote in 2024, but went more than eight in 10 for Marshall’s opponent, Hamilton.

MICHIGAN

Democrat Abdul El-Sayed pulled off a win against Republican Rep. Mike Rogers to keep Michigan’s Senate seat blue. He will be the first Muslim member of the Senate.

El-Sayed fended off charges of family ties to extremist groups and being too closely aligned with the far-left during the campaign. But when asked whether they found him too extreme, Michigan voters said no.

His opponent Rogers, however, faced the headwinds of an unpopular president of his own party with some policies that were pretty unpopular in the state he was hoping to represent. When asked if he was too closely tied to Trump, the answer was a resounding yes – with more than six in 10 saying so.

Michigan voters really don’t like the job Trump is doing – six in 10 say they disapprove. Seven in 10 say the economy is in bad shape, eight in 10 say inflation has been a hardship for them, while four in 10 say their family’s financial situation has gotten worse over the past year. All of these voters broke for El-Sayed.

Israel became an issue in the campaign, with more than half saying U.S. support is too strong.

There was concern that Black voters wouldn’t come through for El-Sayed, but close to nine in 10 of them did, about the same level as they did for Harris in 2024.

Young voters: half of them went for Trump two years ago in Michigan. This time, less than a third backed Rogers.

Rogers did well enough with rural voters and those with no college degree, reliably Republican groups. But he couldn’t overcome El-Sayed’s strength among women, college graduates, urban and suburban voters.

MINNESOTA

In a race that seemed surprisingly close in a reliably blue state, Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan succeeded in holding retiring Sen. Tina Smith’s seat for the Democrats.

Her opponent, longtime NFL sideline reporter Michele Tafoya, tried to hit Flanagan hard on corruption, linking her to the massive fraud scandals unfolding in the state. And corruption is indeed a major concern for voters, with six in 10 saying it is a major problem. Those voters went more than two to one for Tafoya, but Flanagan carried the day just about everywhere else.

The top issue in Minnesota is the state of democracy. Flanagan carried those voters by four to one.

The economy was the No. 2 issue for Minnesota voters, and they are clearly not happy with any of it. Seven in 10 rate the economy as not so good or poor, eight in 10 say inflation has been a hardship for their family, six in 10 blame Trump’s policies for inflation, and two thirds say Trump policies have made the economy worse.

Flanagan worked overtime to link Tafoya to the unpopular president, and it seems to have paid off. Voters also question Tafoya’s experience, with more than half deciding she didn’t have enough.

Flanagan’s far-left progressive politics don’t seem to give them pause, however, with more than half saying her views are not too extreme.

TEXAS

James Talarico defeated Republican Ken Paxton, flipping a Senate seat in a state Trump won by 14 points only two years ago and breaking a decades-long Republican hold on the Lone Star State. He is the first Democrat in more than 30 years to win a statewide race in Texas.

Hispanic voters, who gave half of their vote to Trump in 2024, turned around and supported Talarico by two thirds.

Young voters turned out overwhelmingly for Talarico, with eight in 10 backing him – this after more than half of them supported Trump two years ago.

Trump carried 73% of rural voters in 2024. Talarico didn’t win them, but Paxton struggled with this die-hard Republican group, getting about six in 10 of their votes.

Paxton also held on to three quarters of non-MAGA Republicans, many of whom were expected to defect, but gave him about the same level of support as they did Trump in 2024.

Paxton was a controversial candidate, having won a divisive primary against longtime Republican Sen. John Cornyn and facing various legal and personal scandals. His unfavorable rating reflects this, with six in 10 saying they don’t have a good opinion of him. Four in 10 say the same about Talarico.

Black support was crucial for Talarico, especially after his own divisive primary against Rep. Jasmine Crockett, who did not endorse him. And turn out they did – nine in 10 of them. This after Trump managed to pull 20% of the Black vote in 2024.

Texas voters are in an ornery mood, with seven in 10 saying they are angry or dissatisfied with the direction the country is going.

They’re also feeling surly about the Iran war – perhaps not a surprise in a state so dependent on the oil business. Nine in 10 say the war was a factor in their vote, six in 10 say it was the wrong decision, and another six in 10 say they are very concerned about the cost of gas.

In the governor’s race, Republican Greg Abbott was seeking a historic fourth term, but lost to Democratic state Rep. Gina Hinojosa, who will be the first Hispanic governor of the state and the first Democrat elected governor since Ann Richards in 1990.

Abbott’s loss is perhaps not surprising given more than half of Texas voters have an unfavorable opinion of him, compared to about four in 10 who feel the same way about Hinojosa.

ALASKA

In a race featuring the incumbent Republican Dan Sullivan, Democrat Mary Peltola, and independent “Decoy” Dan Sullivan, the Alaska Senate race remains too early to call at the end of the night.

The focus of the final week of the campaign turned on a New York Times report saying Alaska Democrats intentionally placed a second Dan Sullivan on the ballot in order to hurt the Republican’s chances. Peltola denied the report, but lawsuits and accusations were flying as voters headed to the polls.

As elsewhere across the country, affordability issues were a key concern. Just about half of Alaska voters were very concerned about the cost of gas, healthcare, food and utilities.

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The economy was not the No. 1 issue, however. The state of democracy took top place, and those voters went strongly for Peltola.

Trump carried the state by 13 points in 2024. Now, more voters disapprove of the job he’s doing than approve.

Two years later he’s not exactly a help. More than half say that Sullivan is too close to the president. Yet, almost one in five of those who say he is too supportive of Trump still back him.

Methodology for states

The Voter Poll is based on a survey conducted by SSRS with registered voters nationwide. This survey was conducted Oct. 19 to Nov. 3, 2026, concluding at the end of voting on Election Day. It includes more than 900 interviews with voters in South Carolina; 1,000 in Kansas; 2,900 in Alaska; 4,000 in Maine; 3,900 in Minnesota; 4,300 in Ohio; 4,400 in Iowa; 4,700 in Michigan; and 5,200 in Texas. The survey was conducted Oct. 19 through Nov. 3, 2026. Full methodological details are available here.