DALLAS — The bruising GOP primary for the Texas Senate between incumbent Sen. John Cornyn and state Attorney General Ken Paxton will head to a runoff after neither candidate locked down an outright majority in the Tuesday contest.
Rep. Wesley Hunt (R-Texas) was eliminated from the three-way battle after garnering the lowest support of the trio. The runoff between Cornyn (R-Texas), 74, and Paxton (R), 63, will take place on May 26.
The runoff winner will face Democratic Rep. Jasmine Crockett or Texas state Rep. James Talarico in November in a race that will help determine whether Republicans maintain control of the US Senate.
With more than half of the votes counted, Cornyn held a lead of 43% to Paxton’s 40%. Hunt was eliminated with 13% of the GOP primary support.
Paxton launched his primary challenge against Cornyn last year, billing himself as a staunchly President Trump-aligned, combative conservative outsider in a fight against the GOP establishment.
Cornyn, who is serving his fourth term as Lone Star State senator, has warned that even in a red state like Texas, Paxton is “unelectable” in a general election and zinged him over his multiple corruption scandals.
Republicans’ official campaign arm, the National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC), has fully thrown its weight behind Cornyn, fearing that a Paxton victory would leave them with a much harder job in the general election, one that would divert resources from other critical races.
Top of mind for the NRSC are a series of polls that have indicated top Democrats would fare better against Paxton than Cornyn in a general election.
The Lone Star State Senate primaries were the most expensive in US history, per AdImpact, a digital media tracking firm, with more than $110 million spent on ads for candidates in both parties.
Total ad spending in support of Cornyn reached $64 million, in support of Hunt hit $11.4 million and in support of Paxton was recorded at $3.6 million.
Anti-Hunt ad spending also rose to $5.4 million in total spending, whereas anti-Cornyn ads reached $3.6 million.
Republicans previously had a nailbiter Senate race during the blue wave 2018 midterm cycle between Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) and former Rep. Beto O’Rourke, which was within about 2.5 percentage points.
Looming over Paxton’s candidacy is a series of scandals that have dogged his career. Paxton had been indicted on securities fraud charges in 2015 for conduct before he took office as Texas AG. Those charges were dismissed last year as part of a pretrial diversion agreement.
In 2023, he was impeached over accusations that he obstructed justice in the securities fraud case, made false statements against whistleblowers, gave preferential treatment to a donor, and misappropriated public resources, among other concerns.
During the trial, he was suspended from his duties as state AG. Ultimately, Paxton survived those impeachment articles, which were furnished in the GOP-led state House, and was acquitted in the state Senate in a narrow 16–14 vote.
Throughout his career, Paxton has had a penchant for throwing red meat at the base, having backed Trump’s efforts to challenge the 2020 election and taking legal action against the Biden administration at least 106 times.
Over recent weeks, Cornyn has stepped up his efforts to woo the base by introducing bills such as the Defeat Sharia Law Act and raising concerns about the potential for a biotech firm to usher in an age of designer babies.
Cornyn is a veteran of Texas politics, having held political office for nearly four decades, including serving as a Texas Supreme Court justice between 1991 and 1997, then as state AG from 1999 through 2002.
Trump has so far stayed neutral in the race, despite hopes from both candidates that he would eventually weigh in. Cruz has also refrained from endorsing anyone, citing his friendship with both Cornyn and Paxton.
Unlike other similarly situated incumbent Republicans that have faced primary threats, such as Sen. Bill Cassidy (R-La.), Cornyn has refrained from alienating Trump, having voted against his impeachment in 2021.
Paxton went into the primary with a polling edge in the closely watched contest and appealed to the MAGA base with a brash fighting style made popular by Trump.
The runoff in May could have major repercussions on the 2026 battle for the Senate, where Republicans are defending 22 seats, compared to the Democrats’ 13. Democrats are widely seen as only having a few pickup opportunities and have been hopeful that Texas could be added to that list.
Early voting in the Texas Senate runoff will commence from May 18 to 22.
