California Gov. Gavin Newsom seems to be laying the groundwork for a presidential run with recent visits to Michigan, South Carolina and other key states — but bettors aren’t optimistic about his chances.
According to the prediction market Polymarket, Newsom’s odds of winning the White House in 2028 dropped to just 7% on Thursday morning — which the platform described as an “all-time low.”
The drop follows a steady trend downward for the Democrat, after Polymarket put his chances of winning at 22% in October of last year.
Instead, bettors are picking Congresswoman Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez of New York, whose odds of winning have doubled this year to 13%, giving her the lead among Democrats.
Following closely behind is US Sen. Jon Ossoff of Georgia, with 12% odds, as his name continues to circulate as a potential candidate.
The Post asked Newsom at a Thursday press conference in Marin County whether his ties to California would be a liability for his bid.
Even many Democrats doubt that a politician from California, with its sky-high cost of living, heavy regulations and homelessness crisis, will be palatable to swing-state voters who may be deeply skeptical of its super-liberal governance.
“I think about it very differently than some of the pundits out there,” Newsom said.
The governor rattled off statistics about California’s highest-in-the-nation minimum wage, agricultural output, venture capital and other evidence of what he described as the state’s “dominance.”
“We’re proud of that,” Newsom said.
On the GOP side, Vice President JD Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio had 24% and 9% chances on Polymarket respectively. Odds-wise, Vance leads the entire pack of potential candidates.
The shifting dynamics partly reflect real-life trends in the Democratic primary presidential polls conducted this past year. Much of the earlier polls were dominated by Newsom and another Californian, former Vice President Kamala Harris.
But in recent months, a number of polls show the pair losing ground as interest has piqued for other potential candidates.
Ocasio-Cortez, for instance, has grabbed headlines as prominent socialists scored huge victories during nationwide primaries this year.
There’s also been an increase in interest for the likes of Ossoff and former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg.
Still, the most recent polls have generally shown both Newsom and Harris in favorable positions.
The past four polls, for instance, from Aug. 29 to Sept. 2, show Harris leading the pack with Newsom consistently in second or third place.
The California Post contacted Newsom’s office for comment.
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